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Electric Drones: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) 2015-2025
Quadcopter, fixed wing, airship, amphibians/diving, bat, bird, fly: Technology, uses
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This unique report separately forecasts the number, unit value and market value of the global market for three separate categories - personal/ toy drones, other small drones and large drones whether hybrid or pure electric. It estimates the percentage with cameras over the years. Over all categories, the report concludes that the market will grow very rapidly to reach a total figure of $4.5 billion in 2025 and that the benefits reaped by these craft will be a multiple of that in agriculture and many other applications. They are not ideal for all missions but they are the best option for an increasing variety of missions.
IDTechEx argues that electric power is optimal for most future UAV needs, these becoming extremely diverse. Intelligently swarming robot flies and robot bats are among the many examples of new capabilities made possible by electric power in UAVs. Of course, the better known category of quadcopters is also covered.
To put electric drones in the context of non-electric drones, IDTechEx also forecasts size of the non-electric drone market, this being unlike the rest in being almost entirely military. The figures reveal that a growing percentage of the total market will be electric and why that will happen. Very different functions and applications are predicted including how the technology is changing radically over the coming ten years.
Pricing trends are debateable. IDTechEx expects large electric UAVs to be mainly used in military missions and as alternatives to location and communications satellites. They are expected to be broadly in the price range of today's non-electric large UAVs, indeed replacing them in some cases with hybrid electric powertrains. For comparison, the popular non-electric MQ9 Reaper starts at $10.7 million. The cost of the components of small UAVs has been dropping sharply partly due to large increases in volumes sold but complexity and sophistication of new models will more than compensate for this in the view of IDTechEx expressed in the report.
Many IDTechEx analysts have travelled intensively to analyse how electric unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will be deployed in the next few years for both civil and military missions in both hybrid and pure electric form. For example, the benefits of near silent operation, in the air and on the ground, with virtually no noise or gaseous emissions, are valued in both military and civil applications but the authors also look at negatives and alternatives: this is analysis not evangelism. Tables and figures present the results in clear form with information not available elsewhere and there is 30 minutes free consultancy with the report to ensure satisfaction. With information gleaned even in 2015, this is the only comprehensive, up-to-date report on the subject.
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担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | Definition |
| 1.1. | Cost reduction of components of small drones to 2015 |
| 1.1. | Types of UAV. Those mainly remote controlled in green, mainly autonomous in red |
| 1.2. | Global electric UAV market, number million 2015-2025. Those categories with over 90% of the UAVs having cameras are shown in blue. |
| 1.2. | Global electric UAV market value $ billion 2015-2025 with assumptions |
| 1.2. | Types |
| 1.3. | Global electric UAV market, number, unit value, market value 2015-2025 |
| 1.3. | Value of global electric, non-electric and total UAV market 2015-2025 |
| 1.3. | Global electric UAV market $ ex-factory unit value 2015-2025 |
| 1.4. | Global electric UAV market value $ billion 2015-2025 with assumptions |
| 1.4. | US military UAV procurement including systems 1988-2013 |
| 1.4. | Electric vs non-electric UAVs 2015-2025 |
| 1.5. | Benefits and issues |
| 1.5. | Northrup Grumman X47-B designed to take off from and land on aircraft carriers. Not currently a candidate for electric power train |
| 1.5. | Value of global electric, non-electric and total UAV market 2015-2025 |
| 1.6. | Examples of civil drone applications 2014-5 |
| 1.6. | Cost of Traditional alternatives to UAVs |
| 1.6. | Applications 2014-5 |
| 1.7. | Professional benefits |
| 1.7. | Some impacts of UAVs |
| 1.7.1. | Most successful pure electric UAV |
| 1.7.2. | All parts subject to disruptive change |
| 1.8. | Agricultural UAV statistics 2015-2025 |
| 1.8. | AeroVironment Raven UAV |
| 1.9. | Collaborative UAV missions |
| 1.9. | Border surveillance |
| 1.10. | Competition for drones |
| 1.10. | Registered number of unmanned agricultural helicopters in Japan and sprayed area 1990-2011 |
| 1.11. | Forecast for UAVs in border security $ million 2016, 2021 |
| 1.11. | Autonomy and technology |
| 1.12. | Benefits and paybacks |
| 1.12. | The envisioned final version of the VineRobot |
| 1.13. | Hype curve for autonomous vehicles |
| 1.13. | Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles |
| 1.14. | News in 2016 |
| 1.14. | RoboBees - the team found inspiration in nature and simple science |
| 1.14.1. | RoboBees can land and stick to surfaces |
| 1.14.2. | Drone docking patent from Amazon - June 2016 |
| 1.14.3. | Flying Whales and Skeleton Technologies develop large capacity airships - July 2016 |
| 1.14.4. | The first fixed-wing drone for immersive flight - September 2016 |
| 1.14.5. | Fastest small multicopter - September 2016 |
| 1.14.6. | Fixed-wing system for survey-grade photogrammetric mapping - October 2016 |
| 1.14.7. | Drone with insect-inspired folding wings - October 2016 |
| 1.14.8. | New Airbus autonomous aircraft - November 2016 |
| 1.14.9. | Water diving drone - December 2016 |
| 1.15. | Amazon drone docking station |
| 1.16. | Flying Whales' 60-ton Large Capacity Airship, or LCA60T |
| 1.17. | The xCraft Rogue |
| 1.18. | Drone with insect-inspired folding wings |
| 1.19. | Airbus Vahana robot air taxi |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Definitions and scope |
| 2.1. | Gannet diving and planned Cormorant military spy plane/submarine |
| 2.1. | Some DJI Phantom 2 quadcopter specifications |
| 2.2. | DJI Phantom 2 Quadcopter with Zenmuse H3-3D |
| 2.2. | Needs |
| 2.3. | Impediments and timelines |
| 2.3. | Tamron lens systems suitable for drones. |
| 2.4. | Benchmarking best practice with land and seagoing EVs |
| 2.5. | Specifications, challenges and functions of small drones |
| 2.5.1. | Challenges |
| 2.5.2. | Quadcopters |
| 2.5.3. | Cameras in drones |
| 3. | TECHNOLOGIES |
| 3.1. | Powertrains |
| 3.1. | Hybrid technology evolving as traction batteries improve |
| 3.1. | Electric vehicle drivetrain options, with those most adopted and prioritised for the future shown shaded |
| 3.1.1. | Pure electric vs hybrid |
| 3.1.2. | Convergence |
| 3.1.3. | Hybrids vs pure electric UAVs |
| 3.1.4. | Range extenders |
| 3.1.5. | Superconducting and alternative motor with range extender |
| 3.1.6. | Walkera hybrid drone with methanol range extender |
| 3.2. | Electric traction motors |
| 3.2. | Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles |
| 3.2. | The convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies for cars and aircraft |
| 3.2.1. | Ultra Lightweight motors for electric drones and airliners |
| 3.2.2. | 3D printing robot flies and their motors? |
| 3.2.3. | Multicopter motors and controls |
| 3.3. | Shape, location, number, type of motors |
| 3.3. | Hybrid electric aircraft experimental configuration using fuel cell |
| 3.3. | Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles |
| 3.4. | Most likely winners and losers in the next decade |
| 3.4. | Large format quadcopter |
| 3.4. | Traction motor technology preference |
| 3.5. | Three ways that traction motors makers race to escape rare earths |
| 3.5. | Turnigy quadcopter motor |
| 3.5. | Supplier numbers listed by continent |
| 3.5.1. | Synchronous motors with new magnets |
| 3.5.2. | More to come |
| 3.6. | Implications for electric aircraft |
| 3.6. | Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical order |
| 3.6. | Small quadcopter |
| 3.7. | Nanoflie |
| 3.7. | Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market split, listed in order of 2012 market size |
| 3.7. | Batteries |
| 3.7.1. | Construction of a battery |
| 3.7.2. | Many shapes of battery |
| 3.7.3. | Trend to laminar and conformal traction batteries |
| 3.7.4. | Aurora laminar batteries in aircraft. |
| 3.7.5. | Choices of chemistry and assembly |
| 3.7.6. | Lithium winners today and soon |
| 3.7.7. | Lithium polymer electrolyte now important |
| 3.7.8. | Winning chemistry |
| 3.7.9. | Winning lithium traction battery manufacturers |
| 3.7.10. | Making lithium batteries safe |
| 3.7.11. | Boeing Dreamliner: Implications for electric aircraft |
| 3.8. | Fuel cells |
| 3.8. | Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified |
| 3.8. | Supplier numbers listed by continent |
| 3.8.1. | Slow progress with fuel cells |
| 3.8.2. | Aerospace and aviation applications |
| 3.8.3. | AeroVironment USA |
| 3.8.4. | Boeing Europe |
| 3.8.5. | ENFICA Italy and UK |
| 3.8.6. | Pipistrel Slovenia |
| 3.8.7. | University of Stuttgart Germany |
| 3.9. | Energy harvesting |
| 3.9. | Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country |
| 3.9. | Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, where identified |
| 3.9.1. | Multiple forms of energy to be managed |
| 3.9.2. | Photovoltaics |
| 3.9.3. | École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Switzerland |
| 3.9.4. | ETH Zurich Switzerland |
| 3.9.5. | Green Pioneer China |
| 3.9.6. | Gossamer Penguin USA |
| 3.9.7. | Néphélios France |
| 3.9.8. | Silent Falcon™ UAS Technologies |
| 3.9.9. | Soaring China |
| 3.9.10. | Solair Germany |
| 3.9.11. | Sunseeker USA |
| 3.9.12. | University of Applied Sciences Schwäbisch Gmünd Germany |
| 3.9.13. | US Air Force |
| 3.9.14. | Northrop Grumman USA |
| 3.10. | Other energy harvesting |
| 3.10. | Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category in number and percentage of category, listed in order of declining asynchronous percentage |
| 3.10. | Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified |
| 3.11. | Multiple electric motors on a NASA solar powered, unmanned aircraft for the upper atmosphere |
| 3.11. | 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced |
| 3.11. | Regenerative soaring |
| 3.12. | Biomimetic aircraft snatch and export power? |
| 3.12. | Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers |
| 3.12. | The four Cri Cri electric motors |
| 3.12.1. | IFO-Energy Unlimited in Hungary |
| 3.12.2. | Copy the birds |
| 3.12.3. | How to capture the wind? |
| 3.12.4. | Valid physics |
| 3.12.5. | How to maintain altitude? |
| 3.12.6. | Storage of energy is more challenging |
| 3.13. | Power beaming |
| 3.13. | Construction of a battery cell |
| 3.13. | What is on the way in or out with traction batteries |
| 3.14. | 142 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel |
| 3.14. | Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions. |
| 3.14. | LiDAR |
| 3.15. | Hybrid powertrains in action |
| 3.15. | The UPS 747 that crashed in the UAE with a shipment of lithium batteries |
| 3.15. | Multiple forms of energy management in aviation |
| 3.15.1. | Multifuel and monoblock engines |
| 3.15.2. | Beyond Aviation: formerly Bye Energy USA, France |
| 3.16. | Hybrid aircraft projects |
| 3.16. | Choices of flexible photovoltaics |
| 3.16. | Burning Dreamliner pictures |
| 3.16.1. | EADS Germany |
| 3.16.2. | Flight Design Germany |
| 3.16.3. | GSE USA |
| 3.16.4. | Krossblade USA |
| 3.16.5. | Ricardo UK |
| 3.16.6. | Turtle Airships Spain |
| 3.16.7. | University of Bristol UK |
| 3.16.8. | University of Colorado USA |
| 3.17. | Rethinking the structural design |
| 3.17. | Principle of PEM fuel cell |
| 3.18. | PEM fuel cell in long endurance upper atmosphere unmanned aircraft |
| 3.19. | Pilot plus payload vs range for fuel cell light aircraft and alternatives |
| 3.20. | Total weight vs flight time for PEM fuel cell planes |
| 3.21. | Takeoff gross weight breakdowns. Left: Conventional reciprocating-engine-powered airplane. Right: Fuel-cell-powered airplane. |
| 3.22. | Boeing fuel cell powered FCD aircraft |
| 3.23. | Hydrogenius |
| 3.24. | Experience curve for new photovoltaic technologies |
| 3.25. | Solar Impulse |
| 3.26. | Solar impulse construction |
| 3.27. | ETH Zurich solar powered unmanned aircraft for civil use |
| 3.28. | Green Pioneer I |
| 3.29. | Gossamer Penguin |
| 3.30. | Néphélios planned solar airship |
| 3.31. | Silent Falcon™ solar electric unmanned aerial system |
| 3.32. | Test Flight of Soaring in 1994 |
| 3.33. | Design of Soaring |
| 3.34. | Bubble Plane |
| 3.35. | Solar and fuel cell powered airship concept |
| 3.36. | Northrop Grumman hybrid airship |
| 3.37. | Electraflyer Trike |
| 3.38. | Electraflyer uncowled |
| 3.39. | LaserMotive objectives illustrated |
| 3.40. | The diesel-electric hybrid propulsion helicopter concept is one of the eco-friendly solutions being evaluated by EADS for rotary-wing aircraft |
| 3.41. | GSE mini diesel driving a propeller |
| 3.42. | Greg Stevenson (left) and Gene Sheehan, Fueling Team GFC contender, with GSE Engines. |
| 3.43. | Block diagram of the Frank/Stevenson parallel hybrid system |
| 3.44. | Krossblade SkyCruiser concept |
| 3.45. | Ricardo Wolverine engine for hybrid UAVs |
| 3.46. | Turtle Airship landed on water in concept drawing |
| 3.47. | Glassock hybrid set up for dynamometer testing |
| 3.48. | University of Colorado hybrid aero engine |
| 3.49. | US Airforce interest in smart sensing skin for aircraft and aircrew |
| 4. | SMALL UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES AND OTHER EXOTICA |
| 4.1. | SUAV |
| 4.1. | Examples of SUAV rechargeable lithium batteries. Top: Flight Power "EVO 20" lithium polymer battery. Bottom: Sion Power lithium sulphur |
| 4.1. | Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven |
| 4.1.1. | Background |
| 4.1.1. | easyJet becomes a quadcopter user in 2015 |
| 4.1.2. | UAR Postal, DJI Innovations, Estes, ISQ, Scan Eagle 2014-15 |
| 4.1.3. | Mini helicopters tracking weeds |
| 4.1.4. | Drones to better understand how diseases spread |
| 4.1.5. | Drones used to monitor behaviour of killer whales |
| 4.1.6. | NMSU tests unmanned aircraft over active mine |
| 4.1.7. | Multicopter RFID readers |
| 4.1.8. | AeroVironment small UAVs |
| 4.1.9. | AirMule |
| 4.1.10. | AirShip Technologies Group |
| 4.1.11. | Hirobo Japan |
| 4.1.12. | Rotomotion |
| 4.1.13. | Robot insects |
| 4.1.14. | Robot locusts |
| 4.1.15. | Reconnaissance bugs and bats |
| 4.1.16. | Nano air vehicle |
| 4.1.17. | Lite Machines Corporation USA |
| 4.1.18. | NRL UAV from a submerged submarine |
| 4.1.19. | Skyfront Tailwind |
| 4.1.20. | Sony Japan |
| 4.1.21. | Technical University of Turin |
| 4.1.22. | Vienna University of Technology |
| 4.2. | Large electrical UAVs |
| 4.2. | Aeroplanes but not as we know them - SPI electrical SUAV |
| 4.2.1. | VESPAS Europe |
| 4.2.2. | AeroVironment Helios and Global Observer |
| 4.2.3. | AtlantikSolar unmanned aerial vehicle endurance record |
| 4.2.4. | Aurora Flight Sciences USA |
| 4.2.5. | Lockheed Martin USA |
| 4.2.6. | Airbus HAPS solar plane |
| 4.2.7. | Boeing and Versa USA, QinetiQ & Newcastle University UK |
| 4.2.8. | Japanese solar sail to Venus |
| 4.2.9. | NASA Aeronautics' Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration |
| 4.3. | Pinc Air multicopter as RFID reader |
| 4.4. | AeroVironment Raven and Wasp |
| 4.5. | Aqua Puma |
| 4.6. | The Urban Aeronautics AirMule |
| 4.7. | V2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) |
| 4.8. | Rotomotion VTOL electrical UAV incorporating video camera, telemetry, auto takeoff and landing |
| 4.9. | Examples of robot insects |
| 4.10. | UAS nano swarm vignette |
| 4.11. | COM-BAT concept |
| 4.12. | Military hummingbird |
| 4.13. | Lite Machines Voyeur UAV |
| 4.14. | Voyeur in action |
| 4.15. | Skyfront Tailwind drone |
| 4.16. | Sony Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicle |
| 4.17. | The Quadcopter, built at TU Vienna |
| 4.18. | The Quadcopter-Team: Annette Mossel, Christoph Kaltenriner, Hannes Kaufmann, Michael Leichtfried (left to right.) |
| 4.19. | AeroVironment Helios |
| 4.20. | AtlantikSolar unmanned aerial vehicle endurance record |
| 4.21. | Odysseus self assembling unmanned electric UAV |
| 4.22. | Sunlight Eagle |
| 4.23. | Lockheed Martin morphing electric UAV |
| 4.24. | Lockheed flying cameras based on tree seeds |
| 4.25. | Integrated Sensor Is Structure (ISIS) smart airship |
| 4.26. | Lockheed Martin solar airship and P791 concepts |
| 4.27. | SolarEagle |
| 4.28. | IKAROS |
| 4.29. | GL-10 in horizontal flight |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTING | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
レポート概要
| ページ | 186 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 23 |
| 図 | 101 |
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