Impact of Technology Development on Li-ion Supply Chain
2020年1月30日 Dr Alex Holland
While there has been steady growth in the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), mass adoption requires improvements to both range and cost. Improved performance and cost of Li-ion batteries (LIBs) plays a big role in providing this and considerable investment is being poured into the research and development of the next generation of LIBs. CATL have reportedly begun production of NMC 811 batteries and the material is being actively developed by other manufacturers such as SK Innovation and LG Chem, though issues remain regarding safety and cycle life. Solid-state electrolytes are also being actively researched by many, with Toyota aiming to release a solid-state battery car ready for the 2020 summer Olympics. News items on the next battery breakthrough or iteration of LIB are a regular occurrence. Understanding the future of the Li-ion supply chain requires clarity on the technologies and chemistries that will be used over the coming decade.
IDTechEx analysts appraise the possible LIB technology developments through to 2030, including alternative anodes, high-nickel cathodes and solid-state electrolytes. An analysis of the technical challenges and market activity for key developments allows a technology outlook to be mapped, evaluating the evolving shares that different LIB chemistries and technologies will hold from 2020-2030. An evolving chemistry outlook naturally affects the materials used in a LIB and IDTechEx's report "The Li-ion Battery Supply Chain 2020-2030" analyses and forecasts the demand for these materials through to 2030. The cost of LIBs will also be affected by changes to LIB chemistry. Will prices continue to fall as they have done? The shift to higher nickel cathodes will alter the synthesis process and precursor materials needed, while the cost of the metals needed, including cobalt, lithium and nickel are subject to price variations. For example, the price of cobalt increased to a 10 year high of $95/kg in 2018 before dropping to approximately $26/kg in the July 2019. An August 2019 announcement for a planned closure to a Glencore mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, contributed to a recent price spike. IDTechEx's report analyses the impact of price variations and presents a LIB cost breakdown, accounting for material intensities, component and material costs and cell performance. A battery price forecast is also presented, based on historical price and volume data, increasing economies of scale, improving cell performance and the underlying bill of materials.
The question remains whether supply can meet the demand from forecasted growth of EVs. Certainly, LIB price reductions will not be possible if there is a shortage in material supply. IDTechEx's demand forecasts provide clarity on how much production will need to grow over the coming decade, not just for raw materials but for components and cell capacity. Recycling could provide battery manufacturers an alternative path to securing a sustainable supply of materials. It could also allow manufacturers to limit the environmental impact of battery production and negate the ethical concerns around mining. In any case, by 2030 there will be huge volumes of end-of-life batteries that will have to be dealt with and they cannot just be landfilled. IDTechEx detail current recycling methods, players and the opportunities that recycling presents.
For anyone entering or seeking to understand the LIB market, the entire supply chain needs to be considered, from cell production through to raw materials. IDTechEx's report analyses the ongoing activity in various segments of the supply chain, including technology developments, current production output and location, recent investments, timelines and players. Added to our 10-year demand forecasts and price analysis, the report will provide a comprehensive overview of the LIB supply chain. For a detailed analysis of the Li-ion supply chain, please see the IDTechEx report "The Li-ion Battery Supply Chain 2020-2030".