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RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2009-2019
Updated in Q3 2009
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Summation of extensive research
This report is the summation of extensive research including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening.
Purchasers receive an electronic PDF and (optional) printed copy of this report, a separate functional spreadsheet of the forecasts, and access to report updates throughout the year.
In 2009 the value of the entire RFID market will be $5.56 billion, up from $5.25 billion in 2008. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors. By far the biggest segment of this is RFID cards, and $2.57 billion of the total $5.56 billion being spent on all other forms of RFID - from RFID labels to active tags.
The tagging of pallets and cases as demanded by retailers (mostly in the US) will use approximately 225 million RFID labels in 2009, but we see take off in retail outside mandates, such as from Marks & Spencer and American Apparel, where 200 million tags will be used on apparel in 2009. RFID in the form of tickets used for transit will demand 350 million tags in 2009. The tagging of animals (such as pigs and sheep) is now substantial as it becomes a legal requirement in many more territories, with 105 million tags being used for this sector in 2009. This is happening in regions such as China and Australasia. In total, 2.35 billion tags will be sold in 2009 versus 1.97 billion in 2008.
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture with detailed forecasts at a price unmatched by others.
Total RFID Market Projections $Bn by RFID value chain sector 2009-2019
Source: IDTechEx
Full analysis by each market
Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data. Over 200 companies are profiled in this report. We give detailed ten year forecasts of the volumes of tags required, their value and the total market value for the following market segments:
Passive RFID
- Drugs
- Other Healthcare
- Retail apparel
- Consumer goods
- Tires
- Postal
- Books
- Manufacturing parts, tools
- Archiving (documents/samples)
- Military
- Retail CPG Pallet/case
- Smart cards/payment key fobs
- Smart tickets
- Air baggage
- Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
- Animals
- Vehicles
- People (excluding other sectors)
- Passport page/secure documents
- Other tag applications
Active RFID / battery-assisted
- Pharma/Healthcare
- Cold retail supply chain
- Consumer goods
- Postal
- Manufacturing parts, tools
- Archiving (samples)
- Military
- Retail CPG Pallet/case
- Shelf Edge Labels
- Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
- Vehicles
- People (excluding other sectors)
- Car clickers
- Other tag applications
RFID tag numbers by application type 2005 to 2019, given separately for active and passive tags
Source: IDTechEx
RFID revenues by application type 2005 to 2019, given separately for active and passive tags
Source: IDTechEx
Market analysis by a huge number of parameters
Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyse the RFID market in many different ways, with over 180 tables and figures. They include detailed ten year projections for EPC vs non-EPC, high value niche markets, active vs passive, readers, standards, markets by frequency, markets by geographical region, label vs non label, chip vs chipless, markets by application, tag format and tag location. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed as are the major players and unmet opportunities. It covers the emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.
Total RFID Market by Territory 2009-2019
Source: IDTechEx
Which sectors are booming and which are under performing? This report examines each sector in turn. Those doing well in numbers sold are sometimes much less impressive in dollars taken and vice versa.
Highly profitable 'niche' markets analysed
Major players now and in the future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in the future are analysed. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:
- Passports in the face of new terrorism resulting in new laws
- Livestock and food traceability in the face of new laws, bioterrorism, avian flu, BSE, fraud with subsidies etc.
- Intermodal containers (Smart and Secure Tradelanes and other initiatives)
- Healthcare
- Those in prison and on parole
- Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN), for warning of natural disasters, military and other purposes
Our forecasts have taken into account the global economic slow down. Looking at the range of applications, the biggest projects, which tend to be government led and are usually profitable for suppliers involved, are unlikely to reverse. For example, governments will not stop tagging passports or cattle to save money. Governments do not need a fast return on investment. In industry, RFID is being applied where it can demonstrate a fairly rapid return on investment. We expect the smaller funds available to companies will result in some projects being delayed, but some companies will use this to their advantage and adopt RFID where the paybacks are compelling for competitive advantage and to increase sales.
RFID by Frequency Used
Source: IDTechEx
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Feedback
Here are comments from a few clients who have purchased this report:
"We found the report to be extremely helpful and well done. We would highly recommend it to anyone interested in learning more about the RFID market" Daniel Luch, CEO, Ertek
"PolyIC uses IDTechEx reports with its deep understanding, view and analysis to update its own market models and estimations" Wolfgang Mildner, Managing Director, PolyIC
"We have found the RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2007-2017 report to be the most insightful and in-depth analysis of global RFID developments. Unlike many other reports, this report really paints the complete picture. It is clearly based on unmatched understanding of the RFID industry." Eelco de Jong, RFID Domain Lead, LogicaCMG
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| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
| 1. | INTRODUCTION |
| 1.1. | Definitions |
| 1.1. | Largest suppliers to date |
| 1.1. | The RFID value chain |
| 1.1.1. | RFID |
| 1.1.2. | Chipless/printed RFID |
| 1.1.3. | Passive and active RFID |
| 1.2. | Tags have different shapes |
| 1.2. | Where RFID tags are placed - categories used |
| 1.2. | An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag |
| 1.3. | Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume. |
| 1.3. | Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2008 in millions |
| 1.3. | The RFID value chain |
| 1.4. | Where tags are placed |
| 1.4. | The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions |
| 1.4. | The adoption curve 2004-2020 |
| 1.5. | The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope |
| 1.5. | Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2008 in millions |
| 1.5. | The show so far - 1945 to 2009 |
| 1.5.1. | Cumulative sales by applicational category |
| 1.5.2. | Cumulative sales active vs passive |
| 1.5.3. | Cumulative sales chip vs chipless |
| 1.5.4. | Dominant RFID chip suppliers |
| 1.6. | Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2008 |
| 1.6. | Deliveries of chipless/printed tags to date by company |
| 1.6. | RFID from cradle to grave |
| 1.6.1. | Progress in 2005 |
| 1.6.2. | Progress in 2006 |
| 1.6.3. | Progress in 2007 |
| 1.6.4. | Progress in 2008 |
| 1.7. | Ultimate potential |
| 1.7. | The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2009 |
| 1.7. | Marks & Spencer reusable plastic trays for food |
| 1.7.1. | Potential for different applications |
| 1.7.2. | Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes |
| 1.7.3. | Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve) |
| 1.8. | Legal push |
| 1.8. | Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005 |
| 1.8. | Marks & Spencer paybacks |
| 1.9. | Costs per annum for RF Tags |
| 1.9. | Value of RFID active tag market in 2005 |
| 1.9. | Demand pull |
| 1.10. | Constraints on market growth |
| 1.10. | Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006 |
| 1.10. | RFID and the hype cycle for pallets/cases |
| 1.10.2. | Impediments to highest volume RFID |
| 1.11. | Value of RFID active tag market in 2006 |
| 1.12. | Value Chain 2006 |
| 1.13. | Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007 |
| 1.14. | Value of RFID active tag market in 2007 |
| 1.15. | Value Chain 2007 |
| 1.16. | Value of RFID passive tag market in 2008 |
| 1.17. | Value of RFID active tag market in 2008 |
| 1.18. | Value Chain 2008 |
| 1.19. | Ultimate potential annual global sales of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly. |
| 1.20. | Ultimate potential annual global sales for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly. |
| 1.21. | Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID |
| 1.22. | Costs per annum for barcodes |
| 1.23. | The main impediments to highest volume RFID |
| 2. | MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID |
| 2.1. | League table of RFID specifications |
| 2.1. | The pecking order of RFID specifications by RFID tag expenditure in 2009 |
| 2.1. | The original EPC dream for item level tagging and what really happened |
| 2.2. | Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010 |
| 2.2. | Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC |
| 2.2. | EPCglobal |
| 2.3. | Progress with EPC adoption so far |
| 2.3. | Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC |
| 2.4. | When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx |
| 2.4. | Forecasting EPC adoption |
| 2.5. | Choice of tagging package or product |
| 2.5. | Market for EPC related RFID only - tags, readers, middleware, services etc, in US dollars billions |
| 2.6. | Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards. |
| 2.6. | EPC successes |
| 2.7. | EPC versus Non EPC |
| 2.8. | Near Field Communication (NFC) |
| 3. | MARKETS BY COUNTRY |
| 3.1. | Number of RFID projects by country |
| 3.1. | Largest number of RFID case studies by application and continent |
| 3.1. | Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q1 2009 |
| 3.2. | Largest number of RFID case studies by tag format and continent |
| 3.2. | Ongoing importance of the US market |
| 3.3. | RFID across four continents |
| 3.3. | Largest number of RFID case studies by tag location and continent |
| 3.4. | Largest number of RFID case studies by frequency and continent |
| 3.4. | Projected sales of RFID tags by territory |
| 3.5. | Increasing importance of the East Asian market |
| 3.5. | Number of tags in billions by territory 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 3.6. | Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 3.7. | Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 3.8. | Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 3.9. | Leading markets by country for RFID in billions of dollars, systems including tags |
| 3.10. | Value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 3.11. | Percentage value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 4. | MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID |
| 4.1. | Passive vs active |
| 4.1. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions |
| 4.1. | Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range |
| 4.2. | RFID range versus cost |
| 4.2. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents |
| 4.2. | Sub categories of passive tag |
| 4.3. | Project cost, size and payback |
| 4.3. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars |
| 4.4. | Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center |
| 4.4. | Passive market by applicational sector |
| 4.5. | The main things that are passive tagged |
| 4.5. | Historical sales of chipless RFID tags |
| 4.6. | Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx |
| 4.6. | Passive RFID market by range |
| 4.7. | RFID technologies by range and cost |
| 4.7. | Chipless share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx |
| 4.8. | New passive technologies create new markets |
| 4.8.1. | Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags |
| 4.8.2. | Latest progress with printed RFID |
| 4.8.3. | Price advantage the main driver of market gain |
| 5. | MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID |
| 5.1. | Sub categories of active tag |
| 5.1. | Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID |
| 5.1. | Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID |
| 5.2. | Read range versus frequency |
| 5.2. | Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2008 |
| 5.2. | Project cost, size and payback |
| 5.3. | Active market by applicational sector |
| 5.3. | Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far |
| 5.3. | Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments. |
| 5.4. | RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse. |
| 5.4. | Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used |
| 5.4. | The main things that are active tagged |
| 5.5. | Active RFID market by range |
| 5.5. | Active RFID in the prison and parole service |
| 5.5. | Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates |
| 5.6. | Three phases in the evolution of active RFID |
| 5.6. | Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service |
| 5.6. | Active RFID market by battery type |
| 5.6.1. | Energy Harvesting and RFID |
| 5.7. | New active technologies create new markets |
| 5.7. | Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2009-2019 |
| 5.7. | Systems, devices and interfaces that are now used by active RFID, or combined with it, in small portable devices. |
| 5.7.1. | Hand-held homing devices |
| 5.7.2. | New markets - Smart Active Labels |
| 5.7.3. | An example of massive 'niches' |
| 5.8. | Technologies facilitating growth |
| 5.8. | Average active tag price per application in US cents 2009-2019 |
| 5.9. | Value of active tags by application 2009-2019 (US Dollar Millions) |
| 5.9. | Forecasts for active RFID tags |
| 5.10. | Forecasts for systems |
| 5.10. | Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars |
| 5.10.1. | The spend on active RFID systems |
| 5.10.2. | Active RFID players |
| 5.11. | Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars |
| 5.12. | Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players |
| 6. | MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS |
| 6.1. | Overview |
| 6.1. | RFID enabled cellphones worldwide - 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 6.2. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions |
| 6.2. | Interrogator numbers |
| 6.3. | Interrogator price |
| 6.3. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars |
| 6.4. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions |
| 6.4. | Interrogator market value |
| 7. | MARKETS BY FREQUENCY |
| 7.1. | Spread of tag sales |
| 7.1. | The spread of tag numbers by frequency to the start of 2009 |
| 7.2. | The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2009 |
| 7.2. | Passive frequencies |
| 7.2.1. | Segmenting of the passive UHF market |
| 7.3. | Active frequencies |
| 7.3. | The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2014 |
| 7.4. | The spread of tag sales % by frequency forecast for 2019 |
| 7.5. | Future favourite frequencies by format and application |
| 7.6. | Active tags by frequency in 2009 |
| 7.7. | Active tags by frequency in 2019 |
| 8. | MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC |
| 8.1. | Market split by position |
| 8.1. | The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share |
| 8.1. | A traditional bullet-like LF tag, left, as used in the shoes of marathon runners for timing and in animals. This is compared with, centre, a label at HF, and right one at UHF, both being the size of a credit card but thinner. |
| 8.2. | Examples of contactless transactional media |
| 8.2. | The split of the market by position in the value chain by value |
| 8.2. | Markets for labels, cards and tickets |
| 8.3. | Forecasts by tag structures |
| 8.3. | Breakdown of the tag market by number of tags in millions |
| 8.3. | Japanese train traveller paying for transport by resting a DoCoMo RFID enabled phone on a terminal and receiving a receipt. |
| 8.4. | Con Tag on a ticket machine that opens up a ticketing application in an RFID phone held nearby. |
| 8.4. | Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by numbers |
| 8.4. | NFC, smart card and ticket projections |
| 8.5. | Markets by location of tag - item, pallet/case, etc |
| 8.5. | Breakdown of the tag market value of tags by form by value ($ billion) |
| 8.5. | Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain |
| 8.5.1. | Item, pallet/case tagging vs smart cards |
| 8.6. | Forecasts 2009-2019 |
| 8.6. | Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by value |
| 8.6. | Basic functionality of an NFC enabled phone |
| 8.6.2. | Rationale behind each forecast |
| 8.6.3. | Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities - Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010 |
| 8.7. | Total RFID market value ($ billion) |
| 8.7. | Trial of NFC phones in Caen in France |
| 8.8. | Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc |
| 8.8. | Total RFID market percentage of tags by value |
| 8.9. | The good and the bad of the different proposed locations of NFC functionality in mobile phones |
| 8.9. | What is USN in Korea? |
| 8.10. | Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo |
| 8.10. | Examples of NFC location in phones used in various trials and limited rollouts at the end of 2008 |
| 8.11. | Ticket number and unit value 2009-2019 |
| 8.12. | Examples of leading transport SVC card schemes |
| 8.13. | Some of the largest card and ticket schemes in China |
| 8.14. | IDTechEx estimates of the RFID sales of some of the leaders in RFID cards and tickets, their parts and their systems in 2008 |
| 8.15. | Volume sales of tags by application 2009-2019 |
| 8.16. | Average tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018 |
| 8.17. | Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Million) |
| 8.18. | Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts |
| 8.19. | Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags |
| 9. | MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR |
| 9.1. | Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector |
| 9.1. | IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase May 2009 -number of cases by applicational sector |
| 9.1. | Principle of automatic mail registrations with RFID |
| 9.2. | Mobile AMQM - equipment and practical use |
| 9.2. | Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects |
| 9.2. | Future trend of projects for each applicational sector |
| 9.3. | Market size of tags by applicational category |
| 9.3. | RFID Tag projections by market 2009-2019 |
| 9.3. | US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies |
| 9.4. | What part of the problem are we solving? |
| 9.4. | Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector. |
| 9.4. | Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector |
| 9.5. | Healthcare and pharmaceuticals |
| 9.5. | Driving adoption |
| 9.6. | Examples of laundry tags |
| 9.6. | Postal and courier services |
| 9.7. | Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods |
| 9.7. | Typical laundry process |
| 9.8. | Woven, stitchable RFID tags, the one on the left being HF and the one on the right UHF. |
| 9.8. | Military and federal |
| 9.9. | Airlines and Airports |
| 9.9. | RFID in fibre |
| 9.10. | Some laundry tag suppliers |
| 9.10. | Libraries |
| 9.11. | Secure access |
| 9.11. | IDTechEx forecast of global laundry tag market in millions of tags 2009-2019 |
| 9.12. | Laundry/ rented textiles |
| 9.12.1. | State of the art |
| 9.12.2. | Payback |
| 9.12.3. | Technical requirements and trends |
| 9.12.4. | Contrast in store apparel tagging |
| 9.12.5. | Laundry tag suppliers |
| 9.12.6. | Addressable market |
| 9.12.7. | Forecasts |
| 10. | LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE |
| 10.1. | Dynamics of the RFID value chain |
| 10.1. | Examples of some of the larger RFID suppliers and their estimated sales and profit status |
| 10.1. | Today's RFID value chain |
| 10.2. | Detailed value chain and dynamics |
| 10.2. | Examples of fundraising in 2005-2009 by 28 RFID businesses |
| 10.2. | Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future |
| 10.2.1. | Largest suppliers of chips |
| 10.2.2. | Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume |
| 10.2.3. | Largest suppliers of software and services |
| 10.3. | Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied |
| 10.3. | Cumulative RFID tag sales by number to beginning of 2009 |
| 10.3. | Detailed value chain for materials aspects |
| 10.3.1. | Production capacity for tags |
| 10.3.2. | Over and undersupply along the value chain 2009-2019 |
| 10.4. | Milestones and timelines 2007-2020 |
| 10.4. | Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2008 |
| 10.4. | Position of RFID suppliers to certain sectors, following the methodology of Boston Consulting Group |
| 10.4.1. | Milestones 2007-2020 |
| 10.5. | The trend for RFID software and services in 2009 and 2019 |
| 10.5. | How most mergers and acquisitions take companies towards total system supply and system integration/ facilities management to chase the big orders. |
| 10.6. | High volume item level RFID tagging |
| 10.6. | Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status. |
| 10.7. | Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2009-2019 |
| 10.7. | The market for add-on printed RFID |
| 10.8. | Competing value chains for tags |
| 10.8. | Milestones 2007-2020 |
| APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS | |
| APPENDIX 2: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS | |
| APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS | |
| APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
In 2009 the value of the entire RFID market will be $5.56 billion, up from $5.25 billion in 2008.
レポート概要
| ページ | 268 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 115 |
| 図 | 57 |
| 企業数 | 200 |
| フォーキャスト | 2019 |
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