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| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
| 1. | INTRODUCTION |
| 1.1. | Examples of fund raising in 2006 by RFID-related businesses |
| 1.1. | The breakeven curve |
| 1.1. | Basic breakeven curve. |
| 1.2. | A more realistic breakeven curve |
| 1.2. | Type of business |
| 1.3. | Typical fund raising and size of ultimate business for companies with various types of activity |
| 2. | PRODUCT AND BUSINESS POSITIONING |
| 2.1. | Correlations between profit, cash and other business variables. |
| 2.1. | Comparison of potential features of HF and NF UHF item level tags |
| 2.1. | Methodology of the Strategic Planning Institute |
| 2.1. | V curve of maximum enduring profitability with size of business |
| 2.1.1. | Product positioning is more important than anything |
| 2.1.2. | Detailed SRI findings |
| 2.2. | The steepening of the V curve as markets mature |
| 2.2. | Redefining the battleground |
| 2.2. | SAMsys financials |
| 2.3. | Financial results of SIRIT |
| 2.3. | V curve of sustainable profitability with size |
| 2.3. | Steep V curve for dairy companies in 1974 |
| 2.3.2. | Minimum size for enduring profitability |
| 2.3.3. | Setting up a service business is easier |
| 2.3.4. | Riding the V |
| 2.3.5. | Lessons from interrogator manufacture |
| 2.3.6. | RFID inlets |
| 2.3.7. | RFID tags |
| 2.3.8. | RFID system integrators and systems suppliers |
| 2.3.9. | Niche and volume RFID activities, actual and wannabe |
| 2.4. | V curve for some airports |
| 2.4. | Experience curves |
| 2.4. | Examples of niche and volume players in RFID by value of sales |
| 2.4.2. | Care needed |
| 2.4.3. | Racing down the experience curve |
| 2.4.4. | Puncturing the dream of the one cent chip tag |
| 2.4.5. | No guarantees |
| 2.5. | V curve for RFID interrogators |
| 2.5. | Disruptive products |
| 2.5.1. | Parasitic WiFi RFID |
| 2.5.2. | Near Field UHF RFID |
| 2.5.3. | Near Field UHF RFID vs HF for Item Level Tagging |
| 2.5.4. | Printed Thin Film Transistor RFID |
| 2.6. | V curve for RFID inlets |
| 2.7. | V curve for RFID tags |
| 2.8. | V curve for RFID systems and systems integrators |
| 2.9. | Experience curve for crushed limestone |
| 2.10. | An experience curve for integrated circuit manufacture plotted by BCG |
| 2.11. | Extrapolation of historical integrated circuit experience curves showing the unlikelihood of 0.2 cent RFID chips at realistic volumes. |
| 2.12. | Global demand for RTLS systems including tags in millions of dollars 2006-2016 |
| 2.13. | AeroScout WiFi RTLS tags including, at right, one with alarm button |
| 2.14. | AeroScout WiFi armbands |
| 2.15. | The HF tag that is fitted to Viagra |
| 2.16. | Early pallet/ case tag at top compared with item level tag at bottom, both being Far Field UHF constructions |
| 2.17. | Demonstration of NF UHF multitag reading of tagged balls in water by Impinj. The reader is the black base to the water tank |
| 2.18. | Second demonstration of NF UHF multitag reading on small items by Impinj |
| 2.19. | TAGSYS AK Tag Module on a FF UHF antenna |
| 2.20. | One of the Impinj designs of FF UHF label for pallets and cases compared with its design of an H Field NF UHF label for small items. |
| 2.21. | Combined NF/FF UHF labels and, top right, an H field NF UHF label |
| 2.22. | The KSW Microtec combined UHF tag Taurus ™ |
| 2.23. | Global UHF allocations of license free bandwidth |
| 2.24. | The TAGSYS HF tag that it claims is the smallest EPC inlet in the world |
| 2.25. | Experimental printed TFTC RFID |
| 3. | EFFECT OF COMPETITION AND MARKET GROWTH RATE |
| 3.1. | Some areas of over and undersupply in RFID in 2006 |
| 3.1. | Market growth rate against size vs nearest competitor |
| 3.1. | Methodology of Boston Consulting Group |
| 3.2. | Useful guidelines |
| 3.2. | Boston matrix for innovators creating a new market |
| 3.3. | Boston matrix for followers |
| 3.3. | Areas of over and under supply |
| 3.4. | Examples of matrix positioning in the RFID industry |
| 4. | OPTIMUM POSITION IN THE VALUE CHAIN |
| 4.1. | Some of the more significant acquirors and their rationale. |
| 4.1. | Today’s RFID value chain |
| 4.1. | Dynamics of the RFID value chain |
| 4.2. | Radical changes ahead for the RFID value chain |
| 4.2. | Detailed value chain and dynamics |
| 4.3. | Detailed value chain for materials aspects |
| 4.3. | Optimum acquisition strategy |
| 4.3.1. | Some significant acquirors and their rationale |
| 4.3.2. | Profile of SIRIT acquisitions in 2006 |
| 4.3.3. | MetroLogic acquires Visible RF |
| 4.3.4. | Assa Abloy acquires Schwab & Partner Group. |
| 4.3.5. | OTI acquires InSeal SAS |
| 4.3.6. | NCR buys IDVelocity |
| 4.4. | Evolution of the RFID value chain to eliminate the silicon chip |
| 4.5. | Evolution of barcode labels and chipless RFID labels |
| 4.6. | All eyes right for acquisitions (almost). |
| 4.7. | Some RFID acquisition activity on a Boston matrix |
| 5. | LESSONS FROM THE IDTECHEX RFID KNOWLEDGEBASE |
| 5.1. | Characteristics of applicational sectors from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase of 2000 RFID case studies. Those with legal push are shown in green. Those with many profitable suppliers are shown in yellow. |
| 5.2. | Recurrence of profit as a function of frequency of operation of the RFID system |
| 6. | UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET 2006-2016 |
| 6.1. | Details of the special needs often encountered in some medium volume, high value RFID markets |
| 6.1. | Some volume applications of RFID commencing in the next few years |
| 6.1. | Niche applications – market projections |
| 6.2. | Importance of active RFID |
| 6.2. | Value of RFID tag and other market, dollars billions 2006-2016 |
| 6.2. | Active RFID market by value 2006 and 2016 and share of overall RFID market |
| 6.3. | Number of tags by item, pallet/case and other, billions 2006-2016 |
| 6.3. | Examples of specific opportunities |
| 6.4. | The smaller categories in number of tags 2006-2016 |
| 6.5. | Value of the smaller categories of tags 2006-2016 |
| 6.6. | Technologies that leverage active RFID in today’s new devices. |
| 6.7. | Breakdown of the value market for active RFID 2016 |
| 7. | SOME INTERESTING RFID COMPANIES |
| APPENDIX 1: HOW EVOLVING RFID LEGISLATION CAN AFFECT THE VALUE OF INVESTMENT IN RFID | |
| 7.1. | Sokymat statistics |
| 7.1. | Savi Technology |
| 7.2. | Philips Semiconductors |
| 7.2. | Sokymat mission |
| 7.3. | Sokymat market sectors |
| 7.3. | EM Microelectronic |
| 7.4. | Sokymat |
| 7.4. | AeroScout WiFi RTLS tags |
| 7.5. | AeroScout WiFi armbands |
| 7.5. | AeroScout |
| 7.6. | Alien Technology |
| 7.7. | Sirit |
| APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS | |
| APPENDIX 3: GLOSSARY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
| ページ | 227 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 21 |
| 図 | 46 |