Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Fuel cells have been in the making for decades. Will 2019 be their pivotal year?

Fuel Cell Vehicles 2019-2029

New markets and applications

Brand new for August 2018

 
A fuel cell is a device that controls a combustion process by electrochemical means. As the fuel used is not a conventional one like petrol or diesel, it possible to have no CO2 emissions if hydrogen is used as fuel. Fuel cells have long been announced to be on the brink of commercialisation, but so far, market penetration has been negligible They are commercially unsuccessful in vehicles beyond a few thousand purchased for material handling vehicles, notably forklifts, in the USA sometimes without financial assistance. A few thousand had been sold as cars by the end of 2017, mostly to institutions on a non-commercial basis. Fuel cells are commercially successful in stationary applications.
 
Fuel cell buses and cars are still outsold by a factor of about one hundred by pure electric buses and cars. Rather than simply follow the views of companies such as Tesla that are 100% pure electric, it is salutary to note what the formerly leading enthusiasts for on-road fuel cells have said recently.
Fuel cells in off road vehicles, marine and aircraft applications have performed quite well but are not yet adopted in volume. Overall, IDTechEx fears that those OEMs making on-road vehicles will be impeded in the now headlong race into pure electric powertrains if a significant amount of their R&D funds are devoted to FC.
 
This report concerns fuel cells (FC) for powering the travel of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) whether by land, water or air. It is intended for those seeking to invest, support, develop, make, sell or use them and their materials and associated services. It will also assist those participating in the value chain of alternatives such as batteries and supercapacitors to understand the considerable opportunities for both collaborative use of their components with fuel cells and scope for common technologies. The window of opportunity for fuel cells in mainstream vehicles is now closing. Any more slipped timescales and some big fuel cell write-offs will be looming in the opinion of IDTechEx.
 
 
~Source: IDTechEx
 
In this 530-page report, IDTechEx details the main market opportunities in the electric vehicle space, by analysing 9 key EV segments like cars, buses, trucks, drones, ships, and trains. The technological efforts of all major European, American, and Asian players, as well as fuel cell manufacturers and newcomers, are presented in detail, together with our signature 10-year market forecasts covering FCEV demand in terms of units, megawatt (MW), million USD, and kilograms of platinum catalyst needed.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Executive summary and conclusions
1.2.The end game
1.3.Assessment of best initial markets given current fuel cell limitations
1.4.The most active countries and companies
1.5.The most suitable countries for fuel cell road vehicles
1.6.Hype curve and attitude by company
1.7.Window of opportunity for road vehicles
1.8.The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking
1.9.Commercial and off-road technology roadmap
1.10.Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 for 9 EV categories
1.11.Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for 8 EV categories
1.12.Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for trucks
1.13.Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for 9 EV categories
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Urban pollution
2.2.Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
2.3.CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
2.4.GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015
2.5.Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015
2.6.Tackling local and global pollution
2.7.Driving factors for vehicle electrification
2.8.The need for electric powertrains
2.9.Some reasons for adopting electric powertrains
2.10.Electric car powertrain evolution
2.11.The saga of the future of on-road automobile industry: new race to pure electric
2.12.Enter Fuel Cells!
2.13.Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
2.14.Searching for a USP
2.15.Forecasts by platinum producers
2.16.Battery-powered vs. Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2017
2.17.Fuel cell system costs ($/kW)
3.INDUSTRY OPINIONS ON FUEL CELLS
3.1.Some positives in 2017
3.2.Some FC vehicle alliances
3.3.Toyota and BMW
3.4.Toyota
3.5.Toyota opens patents
3.6.BMW
3.7.Mitsubishi Motors
3.8.Mercedes-Benz
3.9.Suzuki
3.10.Nissan
3.11.Honda / General Motors
3.12.Hyundai speeds up its FCV program
3.13.Nikola Motor
3.14.Hydrogenics
3.15.Ballard Power Systems
3.16.Fuel cell vehicles enter serious production
4.POLICY INITIATIVES FOR FUEL CELLS
4.1.Financial incentives
4.2.National and regional FC vehicle initiatives
4.3.Examples of Policies Supporting FCEVs and Hydrogen Infrastructure Development
4.4.USA
4.5.China
4.6.Chinese FCEVs are several years behind BEVs
4.7.Long term FCEV ambitions in China
4.8.South Africa
4.9.South Korea
4.10.Brazil
4.11.Europe
4.12.UK
4.13.Germany
4.14.Nordic countries
4.15.Other countries in Europe
4.16.India
4.17.Iran, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia
4.18.Japan
5.WHAT ARE FUEL CELLS?
5.1.Definition of fuel cell
5.2.The fuel cell option
5.3.PEM fuel cell schematic
5.4.What is an electric vehicle fuel cell?
5.5.Cost and performance improvements of fuel cells
5.6.Fuel Cells and economies of scale
5.7.Bipolar plates
5.8.Bipolar plate production
5.9.Issues - gas contamination
5.10.Fuel cells vs. Li-ion batteries vs. supercapacitors
5.11.Need to go via hydrogen? Latest debate
5.12.Situation today
5.13.Comparison with other range extenders
5.14.Fuel cells, batteries and multiple energy harvesting are allies
5.15.'Hydrogen as a vector toward the sustainable society'
5.16.Classification of energy storage systems by energy form
5.17.Power comparison of different energy storage technologies
5.18.Special requirements: example fuel cells
5.19.Fuel cell system in a 120kW bus
5.20.Fuel cell electric vehicle issues lying ahead
5.21.Cold performance
6.TYPES OF FUEL CELLS
6.1.Cactus-inspired skin gives electric cars a spike
6.2.Fuel cell types covered
6.3.PEM Fuel cells
6.4.Microbial fuel cells
6.5.Why do fuel cells cost so much?
6.6.Main fuel cell suppliers and their gross revenue
6.7.Fuel cell market size (2017)
6.8.Plug Power acquires American Fuel Cell
7.FUEL CELLS VS. BATTERIES
7.1.Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
7.2.Honda and fuel cells + supercapacitors
7.3.Suitability of different electric powertrains in replacing internal combustion traditional powertrains
7.4.Fuel cell system architecture for vehicles
7.5.Fuel cell system for 160 kW bus (e-net)
7.6.Layout of bus fuel cell system
7.7.Basic car fuel cell system
7.8.PAC-carII fuel economy car fuel cell system and electricity system
7.9.Battery pure electric vehicle system within vehicle energy management functions shown for comparison
7.10.Battery or supercapacitor across the fuel cell?
7.11.Use of battery or supercapacitor across fuel cell in vehicle
7.12.How and why many add supercapacitors
7.13.Configuration of fuel cell with supercapacitor
7.14.The powertrain of a battery pure electric car top (Tesla S - battery as floor) of about 350 miles range compared with a fuel cell car (Toyota Mirai, extra radiator not shown) of similar range
7.15.Electrification with lithium-ion battery or fuel cell system
8.HYDROGEN GENERATION AND REFUELLING
8.1.Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
8.2.Federal Highway Administration's Hydrogen Refueling Map
8.3.Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
8.4.How bio-waste generates hydrogen
8.5.Standards collaboration
8.6.Fuel price and diversity of supply issues
8.7.Analysis of energy issue as presented by Honda in 2015
8.8.Participants and achievements
8.9.Sustainable society with strong hydrogen involvement
8.10.Floating solar fuels rig for seawater electrolysis
8.11.Objectives for energy sources and fuels, appropriate powertrains
8.12.Objectives for energy sources and fuels, appropriate powertrains
8.13.Hydrogen plans
8.14.Floating solar fuels rig for seawater electrolysis
8.15.Regenerative fuel cell system for vehicles and HRS
8.16.Storage of hydrogen in vehicles
8.17.Sources of hydrogen, progress towards green hydrogen
8.18.Toyota view of potential sources of hydrogen
8.19.H2 refuelling global network
8.20.Solar hydrogen stations
8.21.FC Vehicle to house emergency power
8.22.'Hydrogen as a vector toward the sustainable society'
8.23.Green hydrogen
8.24.Honda promotion of the hydrogen cycle for vehicles
8.25.Energy and work synchronization
8.26.Situation today
8.27.Hydrogen refuelling station schematics
8.28.Hydrogen refuelling station example
8.29.CapEx required to set up an HRS
8.30.Cost of Hydrogen at the nozzle
8.31.Compressed vs. Liquid Hydrogen
8.32.Hydrogen: HRS deployment, viable green sources, price trends
8.33.Hydrogen: HRS deployment, viable green sources, price trends
8.34.Comparison of efficiencies
8.35.Comparison between pure electric battery power trains and fuel cell + battery ones (1/2)
8.36.Comparison between pure electric battery power trains and fuel cell + battery ones (2/2)
8.37.Energy density (Wh/kg) - fuel cell vs. battery
8.38.Energy density (Wh/L) - fuel cell vs. battery
8.39.Cost per kWh - fuel cell vs. battery
8.40.Refuel/recharge time - fuel cell vs. battery
8.41.Conference comment
8.42.New water-splitting method could open path to hydrogen economy
8.43.Scientists harness solar power to produce clean hydrogen from biomass
8.44.Hydrogen infrastructure headed for adequate levels but FC vehicle output badly behind plan - news in 2017
9.FUEL CELL CARS
9.1.Hyundai Motor, Audi join hands for fuel cell technology
9.2.Fuel cell cars in Germany
9.3.Honda Clarity fuel cell car exhibited at EVS29 Montreal Canada June 2016
9.4.2015 Toyota Mirai schematic
9.5.2018 Toyota Mirai schematic
9.6.Cost reduction of the Toyota Mirai 2008-2015
9.7.Current status and potential
9.8.Progress towards success
9.9.Lessons from mass market over-optimism in the past
9.10.Lessons from mass market over-optimism in the past
9.11.Value proposition
9.12.FC car manufacturers and integrators
9.13.Belenos Clean Power Holding
9.14.BMW
9.15.Daimler
9.16.Extracts of Daimler presentation on fuel cell cars 2014-5
9.17.Daimler next gen Fuel Cell Cars
9.18.Daimler FC performance improvement
9.19.Daimler reduction of Platinum content
9.20.Ford
9.21.GM
9.22.GreenGT
9.23.Honda
9.24.Hyundai
9.25.Hyundai next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system
9.26.ITM Power
9.27.Nissan
9.28.Michelin
9.29.Riversimple
9.30.Riversimple fuel cell car
9.31.Toyota
9.32.Toyota view of positioning of fuel cell vehicles
9.33.Toyota Mirai
9.34.Toyota Mirai
9.35.Mirai possible price reduction based on cost reduction.
9.36.Toyota FCV history
9.37.Toyota fuel cell system and Mirai architecture
9.38.Pocket Mirai
9.39.VW Group including Audi
9.40.Volkswagen presentation in Taiwan
9.41.Other approaches
9.42.Plans for launch of fuel cell cars.
9.43.Honda fuel cell vehicles
10.FUEL CELL BUSES
10.1.Several purposes
10.2.Gaps in market: future prospects
10.3.Battery bus is rival or complementary?
10.4.Window of opportunity: necessary actions
10.5.Commercial fuel cell buses
10.6.FC buses around the world
10.7.Structure of Toyota FC bus
10.8.Fuel Cell Electric Buses in Operation in Europe
10.9.The JIVE Project
10.10.Fuel Cell Electric Buses in Operation in the United States
10.11.SunLine Transit - new long-range fuel-cell range-extended electric bus
10.12.Fuel cell electric bus schematic
10.13.Ambitious timelines, disappointing results
10.14.Daimler's old technology roadmap for new bus technologies
10.15.US Targets
10.16.US evaluations
10.17.Daimler view of work ahead
10.18.Daimler view of work ahead
10.19.Tremendous advances: Daimler examples
10.20.Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles
10.21.Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler
10.22.Hydrogen fuelling stations according to Daimler
10.23.Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany
10.24.Daimler program 2015-2025
10.25.Daimler fuel cell buses into production by 2018
10.26.Smaller fuel cells in buses: fewer trials needed
10.27.Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown orange.
10.28.Scepticism to overcome
10.29.Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators
10.30.Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
10.31.Trials 2011-2015
10.32.Commitment in Europe
10.33.Daimler Citaro bus
10.34.Mercedes-Benz Citaro Fuel Cell Hybrid Bus
10.35.Commitment in the USA
10.36.Flint MTA testing Proterra hydrogen fuel cell bus prototype for one year
10.37.Commitment in China
11.FUEL CELL TRUCKS
11.1.Differences between e-car and e-truck
11.2.Fuel cell trucks
11.3.The need for long range beyond range extenders
11.4.Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
11.5.FedEx
11.6.Loop Energy
11.7.Delivery trucks
11.8.Renault H2 Maxity Electric truck powered by batteries and Symbio fuel cell
11.9.What fuel cell vans used to look like
11.10.What fuel cell vans look like today
11.11.Fuel cell trucks in China
11.12.Fuel cells and trucks today
11.13.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - driving range
11.14.Are batteries viable for long-haul?
11.15.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - cost
11.16.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - efficiency
11.17.Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling
11.18.Hydrogen refuelling station
11.19.Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
11.20.Anheuser-Busch Makes Record Order of 800 Nikola Trucks
11.21.Ballard and Kenworth
11.22.Ballard Fuel Cell Module to Power Hybrid UPS Delivery Van Trial Program in California
11.23.Ballard and Hyster-Yale
11.24.Transpower
11.25.ULEM Co
11.26.Nikola and Bosch partnership - hydrogen fuel cell
11.27.DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
11.28.Keyou
11.29.Fuel Cell vehicle demonstration projects
11.30.How many km do trucks travel in a year and in a day
11.31.Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
11.32.Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
11.33.Hydrogen-powered trucks at Battery Japan 2018
12.FUEL CELLS FOR AVIATION
12.1.News from the aviation industry
12.2.The HY4 fuel cell aircraft
12.3.Aircraft
12.4.Lange aviation fuel cell aircraft trialled in Germany
12.5.Cost comparison by NASA
12.6.NASA cost comparison of a gasoline and fuel cell plane.
12.7.Fuel cell surveillance airship
12.8.Fuel cell jet aircraft
12.9.Airport GSE
12.10.University of Sydney
12.11.Fuel cell aircraft trial: Boeing and partners
12.12.Airliner becomes an electric vehicle when on the ground
12.13.New Airbus autonomous aircraft
12.14.DLR project for HY4 four-passenger fuel cell aircraft
12.15.Hybrids should have been first
12.16.Hybrids: running before you can walk
12.17.Ballard - drones and hydrogen fuel cells
12.18.Ballard - drones and high power energy harvesting
12.19.Intelligent Energy - drones and fuel cells
12.20.Intelligent Energy 1.6 kW UAV fuel cell module
12.21.Intelligent Energy 650W UAV fuel cell module
12.22.Fuel cells vs. batteries for aviation
12.23.Fuel cell military drones
12.24.How to optimise fuel cells for aviation purposes
12.25.Fuel cell with on-board reformer
12.26.Lange Research - Antares E2
12.27.Intelligent Energy - planes and fuel cells
12.28.Energy storage cost comparison for drones
12.29.Energy storage cost comparison for drones
12.30.Flight time with fuel cells
12.31.Flight time with batteries vs. fuel cells
13.FUEL CELLS FOR MARINE VEHICLES
13.1.Early work on fuel cells for waterborne vehicles
13.2.Recent news from the marine EV sector
13.3.Underwater
13.4.GGZEM Set to Build First Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vessel in US
13.5.Echandia Marine: The Fastest Fuel Cell Ferry
13.6.ABB: Fuel Cell Systems For Shipping
13.7.On water
13.8.Energy Observer (France)
13.9.Fiskerstrand (Norway)
13.10.Brodrene (Norway)
13.11.Viking Cruises (Norway)
14.FUEL CELLS IN OTHER VEHICLES
14.1.Material Handling Equipment
14.2.ICE vs. battery vs. fuel cell in forklifts
14.3.Fuel cells vs. lead acid batteries
14.4.Fuel cell forklifts: the first volume success
14.5.Forklift classifications
14.6.Forklift companies' market share
14.7.Market analysis
14.8.A look at many FC forklifts across the world
14.9.Jungheinrich
14.10.Still - fuel cells and supercapacitors
14.11.Still and Hamburg Airport
14.12.Linde
14.13.Toyota
14.14.Toyota
14.15.Hyster Yale
14.16.Plug Power transforms the industry
14.17.Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT
14.18.Fuel cells to replace diesel trains in Germany
14.19.Alstom - Hydrogen train first successful run
14.20.Alstom electrifies trains for rural regions using fuel cells
14.21.Coradia iLint
14.22.Hydrogen train in Norway
14.23.Motor scooters
14.24.Fuel cell scooters in Taiwan
14.25.Charging scooter with hydrogen
14.26.Ballard presentation
14.27.Hydrogenics
14.28.Intelligent Energy
14.29.Intelligent Energy 100 kW fuel cell for vehicles such as buses
14.30.Intelligent Energy - Suzuki
14.31.Intelligent Energy - London Taxi
14.32.Nuvera - NACCO Materials Handling USA
14.33.Transition to cars
14.34.Nuvera - NACCO Materials Handling
14.35.Proton Motor Fuel Cell
14.36.Fuel Cell Vehicles for the Military Segment
15.MARKET FORECASTS 2019-2029
15.1.Platinum Group Metal (PGM) catalyst forecasts 2019-2029
15.2.Platinum Group Metal (PGM) catalyst forecasts 2019-2029
15.3.Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029
15.4.Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.5.Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 (MW)
15.6.Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 ($M)
15.7.Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029
15.8.Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.9.Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 (MW)
15.10.Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 ($M)
15.11.Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029
15.12.Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.13.Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 (MW)
15.14.Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 ($M)
15.15.Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029
15.16.Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.17.Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 (MW)
15.18.Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 ($M)
15.19.Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.20.Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 (MW)
15.21.Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 ($M)
15.22.Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.23.Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 (MW)
15.24.Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 ($M)
15.25.Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029
15.26.Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 (000's units)
15.27.Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 (MW)
15.28.Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 ($M)

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