Printed, Flexible and Organic Electronics Report

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Organic Photovoltaics (OPV) 2013-2023: Technologies, Markets, Players

Thin film, printed/vacuum processed, flexible/rigid: costs and rival analysis


In this report, we develop technology roadmaps or guidelines, which forecast improvements in module efficiency, lifetime and costs over the next decade. They provide a practical insight into how the technology is likely to evolve. We also assess the merits of OPV technologies for a diverse range of market segments, including automotive, posters and point-of-purchase (PoP) advertisement, apparel, customer electronics, off-grid applications for the developing world, power generation, and building integrated photovoltaics.
 
The photovoltaic (PV) market remains an extremely volatile sector for suppliers. Currently, crystalline silicon devices control 85% of market, with the remainder being captured by a range of thin film PV devices including CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si. Margins are increasingly tight for on-grid technologies.
 
Now there is a third-wave of PV technologies entering the market. This wave consists of dye sensitised solar cells (DSSC) and organic photovoltaics (OPV). In this report, we provide a detailed assessment of the technology and markets for OPVs, which are being used where conventional PV cannot go, changing the value-added opportunity.
 
OPVs bring the following attributes to the market: (a) excellent form factor, (b) good performance under indoor lighting conditions, (c) low capital expenditure, and (d) potentially very low energy production costs using printable plastics. Based on these value propositions, OPVs will not only target existing markets, but will also enable new ones, which existing solutions may not have been able to address.
 
Not all is well with OPVs, however. The efficiency levels are low, despite the fact that the active semiconductor can be synthesised from many different molecular and polymeric materials. The lifetime is in the order of days if the device is exposed to ambient conditions and existing commercial encapsulants can extend it only to 2-3 years. The constituent materials are still in low-volume production and therefore command high prices.
 
In this report, we develop technology roadmaps or guidelines, which forecast improvements in module efficiency, lifetime and costs over the next decade. These roadmaps are developed based on extensive interviews with researchers, material suppliers, manufacturers and integrators around the world. They provide a practical insight into how the technology is likely to evolve.
 
We also assess the merits of OPV technologies for a diverse range of market segments, including automotive, posters and point-of-purchase (PoP) advertisements, apparel (clothes, sportswear, military uniforms, etc), customer electronics (e-readers, mobile phones, watches, toys, etc), off-grid applications for the developing world, power generation, and building integrated photovoltaics. For each application, we interview developers and end-users and perform detailed numerical estimates.
 
We estimate that the market will rise to $87 million by 2023. The market growth will be predominantly driven by electronics in apparel, posters and PoP smart labels, and off-grid developing world applications. OPVs will nonetheless remain a small player on the greater PV scene, obtaining total market shares <1.5%.
 
The bankruptcy of Konarka is consistent with our assessment of the technology. Konarka was a leading company in the OPV space and had raised approximately $170 million and acquired an ex Polaroid facility at a reduced price. In spite of these but consistent with our roadmaps, their technology remained an overpriced option with limited lifetime at a time when the entire PV industry was experiencing severe cost pressures and small margins. Companies like Mitsubishi, eight19 and Heliatek, profiled in detail in this report, continue with the development of organic solar cells and are preparing to enter the market place by initially targeting smaller niche markets.
 
Organic Photovoltaics Market Forecast in US$ *
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.A multitude of technologies available
1.1.Technical performance of different PV technologies. Printability and flexibility are assessed on a scale of 1-10; with 10 being the most printable and/or flexible
1.1.A radar chart comparing attributes of different PV technologies
1.2.Efficiency improvement roadmap. Y-axis is in %
1.2.Merits of different PV technologies
1.2.Roadmaps - efficiency
1.3.Roadmaps - lifetime
1.3.Energy generation costs
1.3.Predicted lifetime increases as a function of year
1.4.Price evolution for different grades of barrier layers
1.4.Selling points of organic photovoltaics
1.4.Roadmaps - costs
1.5.Organic Photovoltaics - selling points
1.5.Target markets of OPV and assessing the suitability of OPVs for each segment
1.5.Market forecasts 2013-2023 in US$ million
1.6.Forecast for the number of units involved in each application 2013-2023
1.6.Market forecasts 2013-2023 in US$ million
1.6.Market Segments
1.7.Market Forecasts
1.7.Forecast for the number of units involved in each application 2013-2023
1.7.Estimated amount of wattage produced by unit/item in each market sector
1.8.Commercial Success- Konarka files for bankruptcy
2.INTRODUCTION TO PHOTOVOLTAICS
2.1.The Solar Spectrum
2.1.Work functions of commonly-used materials
2.1.Solar radiation spectrum reaching the earth's surface
2.2.Solar irradiation constitutes an abundant source of energy
2.2.The bandgap
2.3.The 'built-in' potential
2.3.Metals and semiconductor bandgap
2.4.Absorption characteristics of different semiconductors for use in PV
2.4.The current-voltage characteristics
2.5.Electrodes
2.5.Schematic illustration a p-n junction, space-charge region and built-in potential (or electric field)
2.6.Typical IV characteristics of PV devices under illumination along with associated energy band diagrams
2.6.Efficiency
2.7.Typical energy band diagram depicting energy level alignments across interfaces
2.8.Fill factor corresponds to the large square that can be fitted into the IV characteristics (in coordinate region where I<0 and V>0)
3.REVIEW OF ALTERNATE PHOTOVOLTAICS TECHNOLOGIES
3.1.Crystalline silicon cell designs
3.1.Crystalline Silicon
3.2.Amorphous Silicon
3.2.Example of a-Si PV
3.3.Example of flexible a-Si PV
3.3.Cadmium Telluride
3.4.Copper Indium Gallium Selenide
3.4.Existing consensus suggests that light exposure increases the density of dangling bonds
3.5.A typical multi-junction cell architecture
3.5.Dye Sensitised Solar Cells
3.6.A typical tandem cell architecture
3.7.The temperature ramp ups and downs during the manufacturing process of CdTe PV
3.8.Applications of CIGS technology
3.9.CIGS PV devices are often fabricated using a high temperature process
3.10.Heliovolt temperature reduction process
3.11.Uses of DSSC
3.12.Light is absorbed by the dye, creating an electron-hole pairs
3.13.DSSC outperform a-Si cells under low light and/or high angle lights (e.g., indoor conditions)
3.14.The efficiency of DSSC devices increases with increasing temperature. This is contrary to other PV technologies
3.15.DSSC cells can be printed and be fully flexible.
3.16.The efficiency of DSSC cells
4.ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS - TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
4.1.Illustrations of organic photovoltaics
4.1.Organic Photovoltaics
4.1.Efficiency roadmap
4.2.Options for acceptor materials
4.2.Efficiency
4.2.The OPV process
4.2.1.Ways to improve the efficiency
4.2.2.Our Efficiency Roadmap
4.3.Material Options
4.3.Options for donor materials
4.3.Schematic depiction of the photoinduced electron (e) -hole (h) generation and separation
4.3.1.Active Channel
4.3.2.Transparent Conductor
4.3.3.ITO Replacement Materials
4.3.4.Concerns over ITO
4.3.5.Not all thin film photovoltaics use ITO
4.4.Lifetime
4.4.Outlining the HOMO and LUMO levels of common organic semiconductors
4.4.Donor and acceptors are mixed in the active channel, increase interfacial area
4.4.1.The requirements for a transparent, flexible barrier
4.4.2.Approaches for solving the lifetime problem
4.4.3.Our lifetime improvement roadmap
4.5.Cost
4.5.Required technical specification
4.5.Creations of 'islands' should be avoided because they trap photogenerated charges
4.5.1.Substrate
4.5.2.Barrier
4.5.3.Transparent Electrode
4.5.4.Hole Transport Layer
4.5.5.Bulk Heterojunction
4.5.6.Cathode
4.5.7.Our Price Estimate
4.6.Performance limits of various flexible substrates
4.6.Typical absorption characteristic of OPVs
4.7.Efficiency improvement roadmap
4.7.Roadmap of OPV device lifetimes
4.8.Substrate price points
4.8.Comparing different approaches for making transparent electrodes (ITO replacements)
4.9.Global indium production in 2010
4.9.PEDOT:PSS prices
4.10.IDTechEx approximate price points for P3HT and PCBM
4.10.Indium price and production volumes as a function of year
4.11.Repeated and/or tight bending degrades properties of ITO
4.11.IDTechEx estimate cost breakdown by layer
4.12.IDTechEx estimate of equipment and other costs
4.12.OPV rapidly degrade
4.13.Water vapour permeability in packaging
4.14.Barrier performance schematic
4.15.The barrier requirements of different technologies
4.16.Extending device lifetime
4.17.Dyad technique
4.18.Another approach to forming flexible barriers
4.19.Conventional multilayer concept vs TBF design and concept
4.20.Corning flexible glass
4.21.IDTechEx roadmap for improvement in lifetime of encapsulants.
4.22.IDTechEx roadmap for price evolution in barrier technology.
5.MARKET ANALYSIS
5.1.Selling points of OPVs
5.1.OPV selling points are not unique
5.1.Selling Points
5.1.1.Are these selling points unique?
5.1.2.Comparing Different Photovoltaic Technologies
5.2.State of the Photovoltaic Market
5.2.Attributes of different PV technologies
5.2.A radar chart comparing attributes of different PV technologies
5.3.Photovoltaics can be deployed in a range of different environments
5.3.Benefits, efficiency and challenges of different PV technologies
5.3.Poster and Point-of-Sale Advertisement
5.4.Electronics in apparel (bags, clothing sportswear, military, emergency etc.)
5.4.Leading players' interview highlights
5.4.The biggest driver in demand has traditionally been Europe
5.5.Total PV market forecast in installed capacity
5.5.IDTechEx comments on OPV applications
5.5.Vehicles
5.6.Consumer Electronics (laptops, modules, e-readers, watches, etc)
5.6.Electronics in apparel (bags, clothing sportswear, military, emergency etc.)
5.6.PV's 'Moore's Law' equivalent
5.7.Price evolution of PV technologies
5.7.IDTechEx comment on electronics in apparel
5.7.Building integrated photovoltaics and utility power generation
5.8.Off-Grid and Developing World Applications
5.8.PV in Vehicles
5.8.Examples of OPVs integrated directly into packaging/advertisement products
5.9.OPV-enabled solar bag.
5.9.IDTechEx comment on PV in vehicles
5.9.Market Forecast
5.10.Consumer Electronics
5.10.Harvested power versus illumination conditions
5.11.Kerosene lamp and solar lanterns
5.11.IDTechEx comment on mobile devices and other portable/disposable electronics
5.12.Building Integrated Photovoltaics
5.12.Market forecasts 2013-2023 in US$ million
5.13.Forecast for the number of units involved in each application 2013-2023
5.13.IDTechEx comment on Building Integrated Photovoltaics
5.14.Market forecasts 2013-2023 in US$ million
5.14.Estimated amount of wattage produced by unit/item in each market sector
5.15.Forecast for the number of units involved in each application 2013-2023
6.COMPANY PROFILES
6.1.DisaSolar
6.2.Eight19
6.3.Georgia Institute of Technology
6.4.Heliatek GmbH
6.5.Henkel
6.6.Holst Centre
6.7.Imperial College London
6.8.JX Nippon Oil and Gas
6.9.Konarka
6.10.Korea Institute of Science and Technology and Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology
6.11.Mitsubishi Corporation
6.12.National Renewable Energy Lab (USA)
6.13.Plextronics
6.14.Solarmer
6.15.SolarPress
6.16.Technical University of Denmark
6.17.TU ILmenau, Fachgebiet Experimantalphysik I
6.18.University of Erlangen
6.19.University of Manchester
6.20.University of Surrey (UK)
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
FIGURES

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