Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2010-2020: IDTechEx

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Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2010-2020

Electric vehicles - on and off road cars

Updated December 2010

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Electric vehicles just became exciting. For 111 years, electric cars that rely only on a battery - "pure EVs" - have had a range of only 30-50 miles and the humble golf car has been the only type selling in hundreds of thousands every year. However, huge changes have been announced in 2009/10. Electric vehicles will penetrate the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025 - probably 25% hybrids, 10% pure EV but pure EV may be winning by then. Any motor manufacturer without a compelling line up of electric vehicles is signing its death warrant.
 
These changes include:
 
  • Launch of cars that have a range of 250 miles or more in pure electric mode, including a pure EV family car made in China and plug in hybrid gasoline-electric and diesel-electric cars.
  • Launch of the Toyota Prius plug in hybrid that is very attractive to over one million purchasers of the existing Prius mild hybrid and millions of others. 95% of Prius owners would buy another.
  • First full production of the beautiful Tesla pure EV luxury sports car and other sports cars which silently outperform conventional equivalents.
  • Large initial orders show that this can be a multibillion dollar sector of the EV car business, particularly if we include new luxury hybrids such as the gorgeous Fiskar Karma and what may result from Ferrari, Porsche and others racing to catch up.
  • Lithium electric car batteries from companies such as LGChem are claimed to last at least ten years, not the more usual three years. This hugely improves the economics of all EVs with range acceptable to mainstream purchasers.
  • President Obama's Stimulus Bill granted $14.4 billion for hybrids and huge sums have been allotted by other governments across the world to develop and subsidise use of EV cars to save the planet and the car industry and provide independence from dwindling oil reserves.
 
Within the decade, it will be possible for some suppliers to offer hybrid cars and no price premium to conventional cars in the way that the Japanese took the Western car market by storm 20 years ago by offering excellent vehicles with most accessories thrown in free. There would then be no strong reason why anyone would want the conventional alternative.
 
This unique report takes a detailed look at the market size from 2010-2020 and the government support, technology and new model launches that will get it there. It assesses work on energy harvesting in vehicles from light, heat and shock absorbers, new battery technologies, fuel cells, flywheels and other advances and clarifies which really matter.
 
Here you can also learn which countries and companies have the most impressive and why.
The only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide
Entirely researched in 2009 and 2010, this report gives the only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide. With 200 pages and over 125 figures and tables including many new and detailed summaries and forecasts, it gives the future in the context of the past including the mistakes and inspired moves for over 100 years. It looks closely at the forceful new market drivers such as peak oil and government subsidies but it does not dwell on the well understood global warming debate that is also now driving things forward. Instead, it provides essential data useful to all investors, manufacturers, developers, component suppliers, marketing outlets, legislators and those planning financial support. Which will be the prosperous niches? What is the neglected part of leader Toyota's multibillion dollar business in EVs? Where is the action globally? Why is the geometry of the EV about to change? What about supercapacitors, supercabatteries, zinc air batteries and transparent solar cells even over the windows? It is all here, provided by a global team of technical experts who have been tracking this industry for ten years and writing highly acclaimed forecasts about it.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2010-2020
1.1.The market for electric cars
1.1.Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
1.2.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
1.2.Hybrid vs pure EV forecasts
1.2.Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of unites and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
1.3.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and % rounded
1.3.Will cars be plugged in during a journey?
1.3.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally
1.4.Global pure EV golf car sales 2010-2020
1.4.Geographical demand
1.4.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
1.5.Global sales of electric golf cars in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2010 to 2020, rounded.
1.5.Progress of the market leader Toyota
1.5.Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
1.6.Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2009-2013
1.6.Golf cars will have little growth
1.6.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
1.7.Approximate number of new hybrid car models planned by year 2000 to 2013
1.7.Technical progress
1.7.The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2009-2013
1.8.Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.8.Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.9.Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
1.9.Clockwise from top left: BYD E6 from China, Tesla, Fisker Karma and Prius
1.10.Oil reserve life in years by country
1.10.Global oil reserves, production and life
1.11.US oil production and imports
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros
2.1.Geographical distribution of 80 companies making or intending to make electric cars.
2.1.The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out.
2.2.Danger signs
2.2.GE WattStation
2.2.Global stimulus for fuel efficient cars in 2009
2.3.80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
2.3.Government support
2.4.Reluctant Australia
2.5.Formidable initiatives in the USA
2.6.Europe the laggard
2.6.1.Impressive efforts in Germany
2.7.Formidable East Asia
2.8.Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2.9.Providing charging infrastructure
2.9.1.Recharging points
2.9.2.Battery changing points
2.9.3.Can the grid cope?
3.PURE ELECTRIC CARS
3.1.15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
3.1.The arguments against
3.1.Trouvé pure EV car in 1881
3.2.Red Bug pure EV in 1930
3.2.Déjà Vu
3.3.Examples of pure EV cars
3.3.Sinclair C5
3.3.1.Nissan - most ambitious of all?
3.3.2.Here come the Chinese - BYD and Brilliance
3.3.3.High performance pure EVs - Tesla
3.3.4.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar
3.3.5.Heuliez Friendly
3.3.6.REVA
3.3.7.Coda - Hafei Saibao, China
3.3.8.ElBil Norge Buddy
3.3.9.Think
3.3.10.Toyota
3.3.11.Detroit Electric
3.3.12.Tara Tiny
3.3.13.Aixam
3.3.14.Zap Alias
3.3.15.Mitsubishi
3.3.16.Golf EVs
3.4.Aptera
3.5.Gemcars
3.6.The BYD E6 pure EV car
3.7.Tesla Motors Roadster pure EV performance car
3.8.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar showing solar panels on roof and hood
3.9.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar cross section
3.10.Heuliez Friendly
3.11.REVA pure EV car
3.12.The all-electric Coda car, made in China,
3.13.Buddy pure EV
3.14.Think City
3.15.Planned Toyota pure EV city car.
3.16.Tara Tiny
3.17.Aixam Mega City
3.18.ZAP Alias pure EV three wheeler
3.19.Mitsubishi pure EV car
3.20.Tonaro from China
3.21.Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
3.22.Yongkang Fourstar from China
3.23.Shadong Wuzheng golf cars
4.HYBRID CARS
4.1.Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales
4.1.Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles
4.1.Construction and advantages of hybrids
4.2.Evolution
4.2.Chevrolet Volt internal structure
4.2.Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid
4.3.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
4.3.Chevrolet Volt drive train
4.3.Ford
4.4.Chevrolet Volt
4.4.Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning
4.4.Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011
4.5.Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
4.5.Bright Automotive SUV
4.6.Market drivers
4.6.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
4.6.1.Leading indicators
4.7.History of hybrids and planned models to 2013
5.BATTERIES, SUPERCAPACITORS AND SUPERCABATTERIES FOR CARS
5.1.The rising percentage of cost that is attributable to electronics in different types of vehicle
5.1.What is a battery?
5.1.Construction of a battery cell
5.1.1.Battery history
5.1.2.Analogy to a container of liquid
5.2.Construction of a battery
5.2.MEMS compared with a dust mite less than one millimetre long
5.2.Important milestones in battery and capacitor history
5.3.Comparison of lead acid and lithium-ion batteries for motive power in cars
5.3.Rapid progress in the capabilities of small electronic devices and their photovoltaic energy harvesting contrasted with more modest progress in improving the batteries they employ
5.3.Many shapes of battery
5.4.Requirements
5.4.Power in use vs duty cycle for portable and mobile devices showing zones of use of single use vs rechargeable batteries
5.4.Comparison of some options for large rechargeable lithium-ion batteries
5.5.Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources
5.5.Power requirements of small electronic products including Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and GSM mobile phones and the types of battery employed
5.5.What is on offer?
5.6.Energy density comparisons
5.6.Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles.
5.6.Battery characteristics compared
5.7.Five ways in which a capacitor acts as the electrical equivalent of the spring
5.7.Subaru lithium ion manganese battery
5.7.Safety
5.8.Capacitors
5.8.Mitsubishi lithium-ion batteries for cars
5.8.Early producers of electrochemical double-layer ultracapacitors
5.8.1.What is a capacitor?
5.8.2.Capacitor history
5.8.3.Capacitor construction
5.9.How an ELDC supercapacitor works
5.9.Lightning electric car
5.9.Advantages and limitations of supercapacitors
5.9.1.Basic geometry
5.10.Properties of EDL
5.10.ReVolt comparison of battery parameters with zinc air
5.10.Comparison of the three types of capacitor when storing one kilojoule of energy.
5.11.Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources
5.11.Principle of the creation and maintenance of an aluminium electrolytic capacitor
5.11.Where supercapacitors fit in
5.12.Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
5.12.Construction of wound electrolytic capacitor
5.12.Advantages and disadvantages of some options for supplying electricity to small devices
5.13.Comparison of construction diagrams of three basic types of capacitor.
5.13.Where do supercabatteries fit in?
5.14.Limitations of energy storage devices
5.14.Symmetric supercapacitor construction
5.15.Symmetric compared to asymmetric supercapacitor construction
5.15.Prospect of radically different batteries and capacitors
5.16.Threat to lithium prices?
5.16.Single sheets of graphene
5.17.Graphene supercapacitor cross section
5.18.Six Kilowatts supercapacitor for vehicles
5.19.Maxwell Technologies supercapacitor modules on the roof of a Scania bus
5.20.Rechargeable energy storage - where supercapacitors fit in
5.21.Energy density vs power density for storage devices, including new and experimental supercapacitors which includes supercabatteries.
5.22.Supercapacitor and supercabattery compared.
5.23.Types of ancillary electrical equipment being improved to serve small devices
5.24.Transparent flexible battery
5.25.Bolivian salt flats
5.26.Chevrolet Volt layout
5.27.Chevrolet Volt lithium-ion battery
5.28.Smart EV car layout
6.ENERGY HARVESTING FOR CARS
6.1.Potential for improving energy harvesting efficiency
6.1.Where energy harvesting fits into green energy
6.1.Definition
6.2.Choices of harvesting
6.2.Focus of energy harvesting development in the value chain
6.2.Main photovoltaic options compared
6.3.IDTechEx view of photovoltaic evolution on pure electric vehicles
6.3.Examples of energy harvesting technologies, developers and manufacturers
6.3.Opportunities for energy harvesting in cars
6.4.Fiat Phylla
6.4.Primary energy harvesting choices by size and efficiency
6.5.Main energy harvesting technologies are compared by life and cost per watt
6.5.Solar Prius
6.6.Combined flexible layers
6.6.Possible sites for sensors with energy harvesting in cars
6.7.German solar electric car from 1982 that achieved 15 mph
6.7.Pure EV motive power
6.8.Power from bumps in the road
6.8.Lancia car using solar energy in 1997
6.9.Fiat Phylla running laboratory and enabling technologies.
6.9.Regenerative braking
6.10.Electricity from engine and exhaust heat
6.10.Structure of Fiat mobile laboratory.
6.11.Phylla drive train
6.11.Vibration harvesting
6.12.Cruise car solar golf cars
6.12.Self sufficient accessory cluster
6.13.Thin film photovoltaic market share 2009-2012
6.14.Toyota Prius solar roof option.
6.15.Latest MIT solar car
6.16.Honda dream, the winning car in the 1996 World Solar Challenge. The custom made cells for the car are greater than 20% efficient
6.17.GenShock prototype
6.18.Ronggui Yang.
6.19.Perpetuum electrodynamic vibration harvester with its supercapacitors.
6.20.Solar powered Cruise car
7.ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR MOTIVE POWER IN CARS
7.1.Ford Transit pure EV
7.2.Mitsubishi i-MiEV
7.2.Mitsubishi i-MiEV
7.2.Comparison of ac and dc electric motors for traction
7.3.Motor position
7.3.In wheel system of Mitsubishi
7.3.1.Electric corner modules (ECMs)
7.3.2.SIM Drive in wheel traction
7.4.A construction of in-wheel motor
7.5.Ford Siemens EV motor for central operation
7.6.Hybrid vehicle electric motor
7.7.SIM Drive in wheel traction
8.FUEL CELLS AND FLYWHEELS
8.1.Challenges faced in developing satisfactory fuel cells for vehicles
8.1.MIT Biomimetic fuel cell
8.1.Fuel cells
8.1.1.Definition and description
8.1.2.Current situation
8.1.3.Potential benefits
8.1.4.Types of fuel cell
8.2.Types of fuel cell and characteristics
8.2.New forms of fuel cell
8.2.G-30 Van Flywheel Drive System in GMR Test Cell
8.2.1.Microbial fuel cells
8.2.2.Lightweight hydrogen generating fuel cell
8.2.3.Biomimetic approach with MIT fuel cell
8.3.Computed "Lower Bound" Fuel Consumption of Heat Engine Hybrid Vehicles vs. 1980 Production Cars
8.3.Flywheels
8.4.FX85 Leadership Team with a Mock-Up of the FX85 Transmission
8.5.Isometric Schematic of the FX85 Drivetrain
8.6.ALPS flywheel
9.MARKET FORECASTS
9.1.Car production
9.1.Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
9.1.Global bicycle and car production millions
9.2.US oil production and imports
9.2.Global oil reserves, production and life
9.2.Cars and crude oil
9.2.2.Technical progress
9.3.Hybrid cars
9.3.Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
9.3.Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2010-2020
9.3.1.History of hybrid car sales
9.4.Forecasts 2010-2020
9.4.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
9.4.HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006
9.5.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
9.5.Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
9.5.Pure EVs
9.5.1.Total market
9.5.2.Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids?
9.5.3.Market excluding golf cars
9.5.4.Golf cars
9.5.5.Fuel cell EVs
9.6.Battery trends
9.6.Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
9.6.US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
9.7.Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
9.7.Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
9.8.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
9.8.Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
9.9.Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
9.9.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
9.10.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
9.10.Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
9.11.Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
9.11.Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013
9.12.Global sales of electric golf cars in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2010 to 2020, rounded
9.12.Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
9.13.US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007
9.13.Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
9.14.Hybrid vehicle sales by model
9.15.2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
9.16.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %.
9.17.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
9.18.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
9.19.Total sales and hybrids
9.20.Global pure EV golf car sales 2010-2020
9.21.Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010
10.GAS STATIONS BY COUNTRY
10.1.What level of recharging infrastructure is needed?
10.1.Number of gas stations ("service stations") by region in 2010
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY
APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
FIGURES
 

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