RFID Report

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RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2006 - 2016

Your complete guide to the RFID markets and opportunities

Updated in October 2006

This report has now been superseeded by the newly researched report RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2007-2017. Click here for full details.
 
 
This essential report analyses the rapidly growing and diversifying market for Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) with detailed ten year forecasts. Cumulative sales of RFID tags for sixty years until the beginning of 2006 total 2.5 billion, with 600 million tags being sold in 2005 alone. In 2006, IDTechEx expect 1.3 billion tags to be sold, with 500million RFID smart labels for pallet and case level tagging but the majority into a range of diverse markets from baggage and passports to contactless payment cards and drugs.
 
In the short term large "closed loop" markets requiring high value RFID will remain very profitable and companies will seek to position themselves as the leader in hardware and integration in different vertical market segments. Challenges with tag yield versus cost, frequency acceptance, specification creep and required performance levels are some of the key issues that are being resolved to grow the RFID market exponentially over coming years to be almost ten times the size in 2016 that it will be in 2006. At 2016, IDTechEx see the value of the total market including systems and services to rocket to $26.23Bn from $2.77Bn in 2006. This includes many new markets that are being created, such as the market for Real Time Location Systems using active RFID, which will itself be more than $6Bn in 2016.
 
Such growth will be driven by the tagging of high volume items - notably consumer goods, drugs and postal packages - at the request of retailers, military forces and postal authorities and for legal reasons. In these cases, the primary benefits sought will be broader and include cost, increased sales, improved safety, reduced crime and improved customer service.
 
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture with detailed forecasts at a price unmatched by others.
 
Total RFID Market Projections $Bn by RFID value chain Sector 2006-2016
Source: IDTechEx
Market Analysis by a huge number of parameters
Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyse the RFID market in many different ways, with over 150 tables and figures. They include detailed ten year projections for EPC vs non-EPC, high value niche markets, active vs passive, readers, markets by frequency, markets by geographical region, label vs non label, chip vs chipless, markets by application, tag format and tag location. Cumulative sales of RFID is analyzed as are the major players and unmet opportunities. It covers the emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.
 
Here are just a few examples.
 
Percentage of RFID systems by frequency type, cumulative to 2006, 2006, 2011 and 2016
source: IDTechEx
Total Spend on RFID Systems, Services and Tags 2006, 2011 and 2016 by Territory $ Billion
source: IDTechEx
For example, we give detailed ten year forecasts of the volumes of tags required, their value and the total market value for the following market segments:
 
  • Item
  • Pallet/case
  • Smart cards/payment key fobs
  • Smart tickets/ banknotes/ secure docs
  • Air baggage
  • Conveyances/Other, Freight
  • Intermodal containers and ULDs
  • Animals
  • Vehicles
  • Military
  • People
  • Car clickers
  • Passport page
  • Other application
 
We cover markets for item, case and pallet level tagging in great detail and also the vast opportunities beyond that, as shown below.
 
Numbers of RFID tags required by non Pallet/Case/Item applications 2006-2016
Source: IDTechEx
Highly profitable 'niche' markets analyzed
Major players now and in future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in future are analysed, such as the rollout of the $6 billion national ID card system in China. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:
 
  • Passports in the face of new terrorism resulting in new laws
  • Livestock and food traceability in the face of new laws, bioterrorism, avian flu, BSE, fraud with subsidies etc.
  • Intermodal containers (Smart and Secure Tradelanes and other initiatives)
  • Healthcare
  • Those in prison and on parole
  • Ubiquitous Sensor Networks USN, for warning of natural disasters, military and other purposes
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1.Definitions
1.1.1.RFID
1.1.2.Chipless
1.1.3.Active
1.2.Tags have different shapes
1.3.The RFID value chain
1.4.Where tags are placed
1.5.The show so far – 1945-2006
1.5.1.Cumulative sales by applicational category
1.5.2.Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
1.5.3.Cumulative sales active vs passive
1.5.4.Dominant suppliers
1.6.Progress in 2005
1.7.Ultimate potential
1.7.1.Potential for different applications
1.7.2.Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
1.8.Electronic Product Code (EPC)
1.9.Legal push
1.10.Demand pull
1.11.Constraints on market growth
1.11.1.EPC hiccups
1.12.Statement of independence
2.MARKET FOR EPC RFID
2.1.EPCglobal
2.2.Forecasting EPC adoption
2.3.Choice of tagging package or product
2.4.Forecast for EPC CPG 2006-2010
3.MARKETS BY COUNTRY
3.1.Number of RFID projects by country
3.2.Ongoing importance of the US market
3.3.Increasing importance of the East Asian market
3.4.Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
4.MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
4.1.Passive vs active
4.2.Sub categories of passive tag
4.3.Project cost, size and payback
4.4.Passive market by applicational sector
4.5.The main things that are passive tagged
4.6.Passive RFID market by range
4.7.New passive technologies create new markets
4.7.1.Forecast for chip vs chipless tags
4.7.2.Price advantage the main driver of market gain
5.MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID
5.1.Sub categories of active tag
5.2.Project cost, size and payback
5.3.Active market by applicational sector
5.3.1.Compare VDC
5.4.The main things that are active tagged
5.5.Active RFID market by range
5.6.Active RFID market by battery type
5.7.New active technologies create new markets
5.7.1.Hand-held homing devices
5.7.2.New markets – Smart Active Labels
5.7.3.The prison / correctional facility and parole service opportunity
5.8.Forecasts for tags
5.9.Forecasts for systems
5.9.2.Cisco Systems
6.MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS
7.MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC
7.1.Market split by position
7.2.Markets for labels, cards and tickets
7.3.Smart card projections
7.4.Forecasts for RFID labels and label-like tags
8.MARKETS BY LOCATION OF TAG – ITEM, PALLET / CASE, ETC
8.1.Item, pallet / case tagging vs smart cards
8.2.Forecasts 2006-2016
8.3.RFID beyond item, case and pallet tagging
8.3.1.Forecasts 2006-2016
8.3.2.Rationale behind each forecast
8.3.3.Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities – Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010
8.3.4.The smart ticket/ banknote/ security document opportunity
8.3.5.RFID specifically for banknotes in Japan and Malaysia
8.3.6.Global banknote statistics
8.3.7.Sharply increased counterfeiting
8.3.8.Penetration for banknotes/ tickets/ documents
9.MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR
9.1.Many different segmentations
9.2.Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
9.3.Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
9.4.Military and federal
9.5.Secure access
9.6.Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
9.7.Trends in the RFID value chain 2006 to 2016 and beyond
10.MARKETS BY FREQUENCY
10.1.Spread of tag sales
10.2.Passive frequencies
10.3.Active frequencies
11.LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE
11.1.Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
11.1.1.Largest suppliers of chips
11.1.2.Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
11.1.3.Largest suppliers of software and services
11.2.Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied
11.2.1.Production capacity for tags
11.2.2.Over and undersupply along the value chain 2006-2016
11.3.Milestones and timelines 2006-2020
11.3.1.Timeline by application 2000-2008
11.3.2.Timeline for development in Japan 2004-2010 and onwards
11.3.3.Postal timeline
11.3.4.Timeline for commencement of pallet case and item level tagging
11.3.5.Healthcare item tagging timeline 2004-2008
11.3.6.Milestones 2006-2016
11.3.7.Report on RFID personnel requirements 2006-2016
11.4.To learn more
APPENDIX 1: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
APPENDIX 2: GLOSSARY
TABLES
1.1.Largest suppliers to date
1.2.Where RFID tags are placed – categories used
1.3.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2005 in millions
1.4.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2005 in millions
1.5.Deliveries of chipless tags to date by company
1.6.The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions
1.7.The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2006
1.8.Value of RFID tag market in 2005
1.9.Value of Category “Other” RFID applications in 2005
1.10.Value Chain 2005
1.11.Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
1.12.Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
1.13.Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID
1.14.Expectations and actions for EPC RFID in 2003 and outcome in 2004
1.15.The main impediments to highest volume RFID
2.1.Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC
2.2.Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC
2.3.When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx
3.1.Number of tags in billions by territory 2006, 2011, 2016
3.2.Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016
3.3.Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016
3.4.Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016
4.1.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions
4.2.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by tag price in cents
4.3.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars
4.4.Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2006
4.5.Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far
4.6.Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
4.7.Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2005 to 2015. Projection by IDTechEx
5.1.Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID
5.2.Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
5.3.Active RFID in the prison and parole service
5.4.Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
5.5.Forecasts for the number, unit price and value of the global market for vehicle clickers (remote locking), Smart Active Label (SAL) RFID and other types of active RFID tag from 2006-2016 in millions of units and millions of dollars.
5.6.Statistics for road tolling/ parking RFID tags worldwide in 2005
5.7.Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2006-2016 in millions of dollars
5.8.Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2006-2016 in millions of dollars
6.1.RFID enabled cellphones worldwide – 2005, 2010, 2015
6.2.Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
6.3.Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions
6.4.Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars
7.1.The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share
7.2.The split of the market by position in the value chain by value
7.3.Number millions of RFID smart cards and payment key fobs sold globally 2006-2016
7.4.Total worldwide smart card market (contact and contactless), 2001-2008
7.5.Percentage of RFID tags that are labels, by numbers made in 1990, 2000, 2006, 2016
7.6.Percentage of RFID tags that are labels, by value made in 1990, 2000, 2006, 2016
7.7.The market for RFID labels and label-like tags 2006 and 2016
7.8.Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center
8.1.Item level tagging numbers billion by type 2006 and 2016: CPG, drug, postal, book and other.
8.2.Volume sales of tags by application 2006-2016
8.3.Average tag price in US dollar cents per application 2006-2016
8.4.Total value of tags in billions of US dollars per application 2006-2016
8.5.Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts
8.6.Other – volume of sales
8.7.Other – average tag price
8.8.Other – gross unit sales value
8.9.Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags
8.10.Global forecast for the ticket, banknote and secure document sector 2006-2016 in millions
8.11.Rationale behind ticket, banknote, passport forecast
8.12.Global banknote population and geographical spread 2006
8.13.Global population and replacement rate for high value notes in 2016.
8.14.The RFID percentage of all high value banknotes, tickets and financial/ security documents made in 2016
9.1.IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase early 2006 –number of cases by applicational sector
9.2.Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects.
9.3.Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector.
10.1.The approximate spread of tag sales by frequency to the start of 2006
10.2.The spread of tag sales % by frequency to the start of 2006 and forecast for 2006, 2011, 2016
10.3.Future favourite frequencies by format and application
11.1.Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2006
11.2.Examples of companies dominating in the chip to label value chain in 2010
11.3.The trend for RFID software and services 2005/ 2016
11.4.Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status.
11.5.Global production capacity for RFID tags suitable for the highest volume demand 2005 - 2006
11.6.Over and undersupply that existed in the RFID value chain in 2004/5
11.7.Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2006-2016.
11.8.MIT Auto ID Center estimate in 2002 of commencement dates for pallet, case and item level tagging by sector 2003-2007
11.9.Milestones 2006-2020
FIGURES
1.1.The RFID value chain
1.2.RFID tagged vehicles being monitored with interrogators on an overhead gantry at Los Angeles International Airport
1.3.An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
1.4.Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume.
2.1.Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010
3.1.Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q1 2006
4.1.Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range
5.1.Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID
5.2.Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments.
5.3.RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse.
5.4.Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates
5.5.Value chain for active RFID
7.1.A traditional bullet-like LF tag, left, as used in the shoes of marathon runners for timing and in animals. This is compared with, centre, a label at HF, and right one at UHF, both being the size of a credit card but thinner.
7.2.The changing mix of contactless applications from Dreifus Associates
8.1.Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc
8.2.What is USN in Korea?
8.3.RFID/ USN development in Korea 2004-2007 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004
8.4.Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004
8.5.The Hitachi Mu chip for banknote and other applications.
8.6.The total value of money in circulation as dollars and Euros 2002-2004
8.7.Total value of fake Euro notes intercepted by the European Central Bank and US authorities by denomination 2003 and 2004.
9.1.Tagging of blood bags.
9.2.US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies
9.3.RFID Value Chain 2005
9.4.How most mergers and acquisitions take companies towards total system supply and system integration/ facilities management to chase the big orders.
9.5.High volume item level RFID tagging
9.6.The market for add-on printed RFID
10.1.A cow being automatically fed an optimal diet and medication thanks to its LF tag.
10.2.A tagged test tube
10.3.Active only in 2006
10.4.Active only in 2016
11.1.Competing value chains for tags
11.2.The evolution of RFID by application, as seen by ASK.
11.3.Expected trend of technologies as a result of industry – government collaboration in Japan, as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004
11.4.DHL timeline for item level tagging of postal packages, first quarter 2004
11.5.The expected timeline for item level tagging in healthcare according to MeadWestvaco and Philips

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