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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
1.1. | Focus of this report |
1.2. | Types of bus |
1.3. | Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable |
1.4. | Why adopt buses? |
1.5. | Why go electric? |
1.5.1. | Drivers of bus electrification |
1.5.2. | Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised |
1.5.3. | Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid |
1.6. | Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now |
1.7. | Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten |
1.7.1. | Powertrain trend |
1.7.2. | Value chain rewritten |
1.8. | Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn |
1.9. | Market drivers |
1.9.1. | Prosperity collides with urbanisation |
1.9.2. | Changes in society and technology feed off each other |
1.10. | Electric bus market forecasts worldwide |
1.10.1. | Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 number |
1.10.2. | Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 unit price $k |
1.10.3. | Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 $ billion market value |
1.10.4. | One possible scenario for 2018 and 2028 |
1.10.5. | Possible scenario for pure electric bus sales by region number k in 2030 |
1.11. | League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses |
1.12. | China buses go global: cost advantages |
1.12.1. | China cost advantage plotted |
1.12.2. | How can bus manufacturers outside China compete? |
1.13. | Cheaper to buy is the killer blow for adoption of pure electric buses 2022 onwards |
1.14. | Technologies important for buses 2018-2028 |
1.15. | Bus technology timeline 2018-2040 |
1.16. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2018 |
1.17. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019 |
1.18. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020 |
1.19. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021 |
1.20. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022 |
1.21. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024 |
1.22. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026 |
1.23. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028 |
1.24. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030 |
1.25. | Proliferations of bus types and crossovers |
1.26. | Record bus range |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | Prosperity, parking and bad planning |
2.2. | Global situation: public transport |
2.2.1. | Cities lead |
2.2.2. | Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser |
2.2.3. | On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus |
2.3. | Technology to the rescue |
2.3.1. | Electrification, autonomy, sharing |
2.3.2. | Synergy |
2.3.3. | Effect of four elements in 2050 |
2.3.4. | Consistently strong policies needed regardless of setbacks |
2.4. | What is happening about emissions? |
2.4.1. | Cheating but improving |
2.4.2. | Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel |
2.5. | Electric bus dynamics |
2.6. | Anatomy of the automotive industry |
2.6.1. | Global automotive production 2016 |
2.6.2. | New Commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia |
2.6.3. | Global ranking of automotive manufacturers by number made 2015 OICA |
2.6.4. | Patchy recording of heavy bus sales shows slight growth |
2.6.5. | Largest bus manufacturers by number to 2015 |
3. | CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE |
3.1. | Yutong and the story of buses in China |
3.1.1. | Yutong bus sales vs competition in 2015 |
3.1.2. | Yutong positioning in 2017 |
3.2. | China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology |
3.3. | Broad technical advances in electric buses in China |
3.4. | China large and medium bus sales 2014/2015 |
3.5. | China hybrid bus sales and news 2014/2015 |
3.6. | E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly |
3.7. | Performance in 2017 compared |
3.8. | Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses |
3.9. | China charging station and bus % subsidies |
3.10. | Restriction of e-bikes helps buses |
3.11. | BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout |
3.11.1. | Global rollout |
4. | INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE |
4.1. | Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all |
4.2. | India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances |
5. | AMERICAS TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE |
5.1. | Latin America - large numbers |
6. | NORTH AMERICA |
6.1. | Unique mix |
6.2. | Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra |
7. | EUROPE |
7.1. | Example of excellence: Solaris Bus and Coach Poland |
7.2. | Visedo PowerDRUM |
7.3. | ASSURED project for fast charging |
7.4. | BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging |
8. | SCHOOL BUSES |
8.1. | North America |
8.1.1. | Overview |
8.1.2. | School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires |
8.1.3. | US school bus statistics 2018 |
8.1.4. | USA: world's largest school bus fleet |
8.1.5. | ADOMANI pure electric boost - US school buses |
8.1.6. | Commentary |
8.1.7. | Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation |
8.1.8. | Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below |
8.1.9. | US leading school bus manufacturers |
8.1.10. | School bus classification and examples |
8.1.11. | US school bus examples |
8.2. | China: big potential, not much happening yet |
8.3. | School buses: USA and China compared |
8.4. | School buses: news, launches and initiatives |
9. | ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS FUTURE |
9.1. | Powertrains |
9.1.1. | Comparison of powertrain options |
9.1.2. | 48V mild hybrid |
9.1.3. | How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form |
9.1.4. | Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo |
9.1.5. | Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes" |
9.2. | Value chain of hybrid buses |
9.3. | Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers |
9.4. | Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles |
9.5. | Structural electronics will come to buses |
9.6. | Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus |
9.7. | UITP and MB summary of bus technologies |
9.8. | Here come more small buses |
9.9. | Autonomous bus and bus-taxi |
9.9.1. | Overview |
9.9.2. | 6POD concept |
9.9.3. | Large smart windows needed |
9.10. | Electric traction motors for buses in context |
9.10.1. | Overview |
9.10.2. | Example BYD |
9.10.3. | No differential or prop shaft |
9.10.4. | Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus |
9.10.5. | New electric drivetrain from partners UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo |
9.11. | Traction batteries |
9.12. | Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses |
9.13. | Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses |
9.14. | Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus |
9.15. | Autonomy |
9.15.1. | Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars |
9.15.2. | Hardware replaced by software & content |
9.15.3. | Hype curve for autonomy today |
9.15.4. | Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland |
9.15.5. | Gateway autonomous bus UK |
9.15.6. | IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services |
9.15.7. | Huge scope for media |
9.16. | Charging the battery |
9.16.1. | Overview |
9.16.2. | Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery |
9.16.3. | Contactless charging |
9.16.4. | Qualcomm, FABRIC, Honda |
9.16.5. | Dynamic charging future |
9.17. | Towards energy independence: increasing bus range |
9.18. | Radical innovation |
9.18.1. | Transit Elevated Bus TEV: scrapped but interesting |
9.18.2. | Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit |
9.19. | Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV |
9.19.1. | Disruptive |
9.19.2. | Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China |
9.19.3. | Energy positive large buses will come |
10. | 90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS |
11. | 86 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS |
Slides | 196 |
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Forecasts to | 2028 |