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Perovskite Photovoltaics 2018-2028

Technologies, Markets, Players

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As one of the top ten science breakthroughs of 2013, perovskite solar cells have shown potential both in the rapid efficiency improvement (from 2.2% in 2006 to the latest record 20.1% in 2014) and in cheap material and manufacturing costs. Perovskite solar cells have attracted tremendous attention from the likes of DSSC and OPVs with greater potential. Many companies and research institutes that focused on DSSCs and OPVs now transfer attention to perovskites with few research institutes remaining exclusively committed to OPVs and DSSCs.
 
 
(High quality image can be found in the report)
Perovskite solar cells are a breath of fresh air into the emerging photovoltaic technology landscape. They have amazed with an incredibly fast efficiency improvement, going from just 2% in 2006 to over 20.1% in 2015.
 
Photovoltaic (PV) technologies are basically divided into two big categories: wafer-based PV (also called 1st generation PV) and thin-film cell PV.
 
Traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) cells (both single crystalline silicon and multi-crystalline silicon) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) cells belong to the wafer-based PVs. Among different single-junction solar technologies, GaAs exhibits the highest efficiency, followed by c-Si cells. The latter dominates the current PV market (about 90% market share).
 
Thin-film cells normally absorb light 10-100 times more efficiently than silicon, allowing the use of films of just a few microns thick. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology has been successfully commercialized, with more than 20% cell efficiency and 17.5% module efficiency record. CdTe cells currently take about 5% of the total market. Other commercial thin-film technologies include hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) and copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) cells, taking approximately 2% market share each today. Copper zinc tin sulphide technology has been developed for years and it will still require some time for real commercialization.
 
The emerging thin-film PVs are also called 3rd generation PVs, which refer to PVs using technologies that have the potential to overcome Shockley-Queisser limit or are based on novel semiconductors. The 3rd generation PVs include DSSC, organic photovoltaic (OPV), quantum dot (QD) PV and perovskite PV. The cell efficiencies of perovskite are approaching that of commercialized 2nd generation technologies such as CdTe and CIGS. Other emerging PV technologies are still struggling with lab cell efficiencies lower than 15%.
 
 
(High quality image can be found in the report)
 
High and rapidly improved efficiencies, as well as low potential material & processing costs are not the only advantages of perovskite solar cells. Flexibility, semi-transparency, tailored form factors, thin-film, light-weight are other value propositions of perovskite solar cells.
 
With so many improvements, perovskite solar cell technology is still in the early stages of commercialization compared with other mature solar technologies as there are a number of concerns remaining such as stability, toxicity of lead in the most popular perovskite materials, scaling-up, etc. Crystalline silicon PV modules have fallen from $76.67/W in 1977 to $0.4-0.5/W with fair efficiency in early 2015.
  • Will perovskite solar cells be able to compete with silicon solar cells which dominate the PV market now?
  • What is the status of the technology?
  • What are the potential markets?
  • Who is working on it?
 
Those questions will be answered in this report.
 
The report will also benchmark other photovoltaic technologies including crystalline silicon, GaAs, amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS, CZTS, DSSC, OPV and quantum dot PV. Cost analysis is provided for future perovskite solar cells. A 10-year market forecast is given based on different application segments. Possible fabrication methods and material choices are discussed as well.
 
The market forecast is provided based on the following applications:
  • Smart glass
  • BIPV
  • Outdoor furniture
  • Perovskites in tandem solar cells
  • Utility
  • Portable devices
  • Third world/developing countries for off-grid applications
  • Automotive
  • Others
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1.OVERVIEW OF PEROVSKITE PVS
1.1.Research-cell efficiencies of different solar technologies
1.2.Overview of perovskite PV
1.3.What is perovskite?
1.4.Perovskite structure
1.5.Solar spectrum
1.6.Calculating efficiency
1.7.Working principle
1.8.Structures/architectures of perovskite solar cells
1.9.Perovskite solar cell development timeline
1.10.Perovskite solar cell evolution
1.11.Progress in PCEs of DSSC
1.12.Value propositions of perovskite solar cells
1.13.Efficiency versus transmission
1.14.The Achilles' Heel
1.15.Stability of perovskite solar cells
1.16.Hysteresis behaviour in the current-voltage curves
2.EFFORTS TOWARDS COMMERCIALIZATION
2.1.Overview
2.2.Efforts to overcome challenges
2.3.Mixture halide perovskite is more stable
2.4.Hole-conductor-free printable perovskite solar cell with high stability
2.5.Large-area all-printed perovskite solar modules
2.6.Ultra-stable perovskite solar cells
2.7.Pilot-scale power station
2.8.Pilot-scale capacity
2.9.Flexible perovskite solar cells
2.10.Large scale roll-to-roll printed perovskite solar cells
2.11.Microquanta Semiconductor
3.COST ANALYSIS
3.1.Global PV industry growth 1993 - 2017
3.2.Cost of generating electricity
3.3.PV module prediction based on learning curve
3.4.Typical PV system prices in selected countries
3.5.Total energy generation cost of perovskite PVs
3.6.Perovskite module cost estimation
3.7.Future perovskite PV system cost breakdown
3.8.Future perovskite PV system cost breakdown assumption
3.9.Breakdown of future p-type silicon tandem system with perovskite stack
4.COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES AND MARKET FORECAST
4.1.Summary of commercial opportunity
4.2.Application roadmap of perovskite photovoltaics
4.3.Unique features are required where silicon PVs cannot provide
4.4.Smart glass
4.5.BIPV/BAPV
4.6.Outdoor furniture
4.7.Vehicles
4.8.Portable Electronics
4.9.Power market
4.10.Efficiencies have been improved fast, but...
4.11.Fierce cost competition demonstrates challenge
4.12.Another opportunity in the power market
4.13.Tandem solar cell progress
4.14.Assumptions & analysis
4.15.Market forecast in values
4.16.Market segment by value in 2023 & 2028
5.TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARKING OF DIFFERENT PV TECHNOLOGIES
5.1.Photovoltaic technology classification by generation
5.2.Photovoltaic technology classification by material
5.3.Third-generation PV technologies: overview
5.4.Silicon solar technologies
5.5.Golden triangle of solar cells
5.6.Technology development roadmap
5.7.Efficiencies of Different Solar Technologies: Cells and Modules
5.8.Life cycle of PV and energy payback times
5.9.Price of different PV technologies
5.10.Solar device structures of different PV technologies
5.11.Open-circuit voltage versus optical bandgap
5.12.Maximum photo energy utilisation
5.13.Metrics comparison of different PV technologies
5.14.Crystalline silicon
5.15.Gallium arsenide
5.16.Hydrogenated amorphous silicon
5.17.Cadmium telluride
5.18.Copper indium gallium (di)selenide
5.19.Copper zinc tin sulphide
5.20.Dye-sensitized solar cell
5.21.Organic photovoltaic
5.22.Quantum dot photovoltaic
5.23.Perovskite
6.ARCHITECTURE AND FABRICATION
6.1.Production of silicon and silicon wafers
6.2.Deposition of perovskite films
6.3.Engineering the deposition process
6.4.Processing planar heterojunction without TiO2
6.5.Deposition processes for perovskite films
6.6.One step precursor deposition
6.7.Sequential deposition process
6.8.Two step spin-coating deposition
6.9.Spray coating deposition
6.10.Slot-die coating process
6.11.Dual source vacuum deposition
6.12.Sequential vapour deposition
6.13.Vapour-assisted solution process
7.MATERIAL OPTIONS
7.1.Material combinations
7.2.Organic ions in perovskite
7.3.All-inorganic perovskite solar cells
7.4.Halogen ions in perovskite
7.5.Bandgap tuning
7.6.Bandgap and tolerance factor of halide perovskite and corresponding PV parameters
7.7.Possible material improvement
7.8.Interface layers
7.9.Polymer HTMs
7.10.Small molecule HTMs based on phenylamine derivatives
7.11.Small molecule HTMs without phenylamine derivatives
8.ADVANCES WITH OTHER THIN FILM PV TECHNOLOGIES
8.1.OPV
8.2.Quantum dots
9.COMPANY PROFILES
9.1.Companies currently working on perovskites
9.1.1.Fraunhofer ISE
9.1.2.Microquanta Semiconductor
9.1.3.Oxford Photovoltaics
9.1.4.Saule Technologies
9.1.5.Solar-Tectic
9.1.6.Solliance Solar Research
9.2.Companies working on other emerging PVs
9.2.1.Alta Device
9.2.2.Amor
9.2.3.Cambridge Display Technology Ltd
9.2.4.Heliatek
9.2.5.KOLON Industries Inc
9.2.6.Merck Group
9.2.7.Polysolar Ltd
9.2.8.SolarWindow Technologies, Inc
9.2.9.Ubiquitous Energy
9.2.10.VDL FLOW
 

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By 2028, IDTechEx predicted the market will grow to over $500 million

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