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48V Mild Hybrid Vehicles 2018-2028


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Any report written one year ago on 48V mild hybrids is useless because their planned USPs and technology have changed and many volume models have flooded onto the market. The new 240 page IDTechEx report, "48V Mild Hybrid Vehicles 2018-2028" reflects the new realities. It is researched, analysed and regularly updated by PhD level, multi-lingual IDTechEx analysts travelling intensively across the world.
The report is intended for those involved in 48V mild hybrids and their competing options, from regulators to materials, components, systems and vehicle developers and suppliers, investors, purchasers and operators. Because the technology has limited application beyond cars, this report is almost entirely concerned with cars but that is enough to forecast a peak in sales of over 14 million units yearly before peak car and cheap pure electric car kick in. Despite assessing the negatives such as 48V MH usually being only an option and diesel is dying, we see a massive $1 billion being spent on them over the years. Even those exclusively making pure electric vehicles should appraise such new competition.
Uniquely, it tracks how there will now be three distinct phases: the 2016-2019 models are mainly diesels with one USP but the flood of models in 2020 and onwards will be mainly diesel replacements and then most will be HEV killers with pure electric modes and very different technology.
Why is there little application beyond medium and large cars and a few commercial vehicles? Why certain regions of the world? Who, outside those regions, is preparing them for export into those regions? Which manufacturers are racing to put them into many models? It is all here in an Executive Summary and Conclusions with forecasts 2018-2028, technology roadmap and deep insights easily absorbed in new infograms, including detail on when and why the then huge 48V market collapses a few years after 2028. We compare alternative forecasts from others and often tell the story with new presentation material and interviews from the leading Tier One suppliers and OEMs.
"48V Mild Hybrid Vehicles 2018-2028" reveals many market drivers for them beyond the obvious economy, power and emissions gains. For example, cars with lane keep assist, lane centering assist and self-driving cars need electric not hydraulic power for precision and reliability. Impending solar bodywork, regenerative suspension, turbine-in-exhaust and more will sometimes viably make electricity that cannot be accepted in today's 12V systems. 48V is an idea whose time has come but it costs more and moving to multiple motor generators, clutched integral drives, 30 kW/ 3 kWh batteries and so on to replace the full hybrid that does not plug in (HEV) will not make that cost come down though it should still comfortably beat that traditional hybrid. Nonetheless, this is a sideshow to countries and companies racing into pure electric and how will HEVs improve in the meantime? It gets complicated: sober, careful new assessments are appropriate.
The Introduction explains how we got here and the technology basics, emission pressures and the emerging competition for private cars and why it will be pure electric. Learn why large trucks and buses are unlikely to be 48V and the overall industry trends such as voltages. Chapter 3 thoroughly looks at the 48V MH attitudes and intentions of 34 brands and parent companies worldwide, including their own recent comments to us and infographics at conferences. Chapter 4 then goes deeply into the technology with more than the usual consolidation of announcements and interviews because the approach is creative, benchmarking other industries. For example, turning off some pistons in an internal combustion engine not designed for the 48V purpose is scarcely elegant: the range extender industry has lessons here and some advanced power units may serve both applications as their specifications converge. What are the new inputs that can be handled? It is not all about extra loads, though those are covered, from superchargers to active suspension. We give the views of the skeptics, not just the enthusiasts.
Chapter 5 drills down to the components including those extra loads and inputs that will be incorporated into the more advanced 48V powertrains. The latest views of leading suppliers and OEMs are prominently featured here with IDTechEx comments and extra information.
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Table of Contents
1.2.Purpose of this report
1.2.1.Why cars are the focus of 48V MH
1.3.How did we get here?
1.4.Technology of 48V mild hybrids
1.4.2.How to make a 48V mild hybrid car
1.4.3.Four unique selling propositions for cars
1.4.4.Hybrid options by functionality: 48V MH in context
1.4.5.Powertrain options by specification: 48V MH cars in context
1.4.6.Considerable improvement possible MH may eventually replace many current car HEV: becomes new form of HEV
1.4.8.Promised and estimated first launch dates of 48V MH cars by manufacturer, ICE type and whether electric drive
1.5.Market analysis, forecasts, roadmaps
1.5.1.Market context
1.5.2.Powertrain attitudes changed rapidly
1.5.3.The future of automobile industry: commitment to full electric 2017
1.5.4.Priorities chosen by auto companies
1.5.5.Summarised views on dual 12V + 48V car systems: interviews, events
1.5.6.Major changes for cars in 2018
1.5.7.Commitment to full electric explains future of automotive in 2018
1.5.8.Car sales globally 2014 - 2050: peak car, market drivers, powertrain share
1.5.9.Windows of opportunity for launch of 48V MH car variants
1.5.10.Modelling Gen 1&2: VW SUV data,
1.5.11.VW and Delphi views of second generation cars with dates
1.5.12.VW view of third generation cars with dates
1.5.13.VW and IDTechEx views of 2031 48V MH technology
1.5.14.Passenger car technology roadmap to 2045
1.6.Market analysis MH car number, price, market value, regional split, drivers 2018-2028
1.6.2.Car manufacturer thrust and demand by region
1.6.3.Different hot buttons for cars by region: Delphi MH cars by number k by region 2018-2028 MH global car market and its drivers 2018-2028
2.1.How we got here
2.2.Basics of a first generation 48V MH
2.3.CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
2.4.Fuel economy demands to 2025
2.5.48V MH replaces diesel: the low level of CO2 of diesel without the high level NOx/ particulates of diesel
2.6.The driverless bus/ taxi is pure electric for zero emission/ fastest precise response
2.7.Trucks: Nikola fuel cell left or Tesla battery right?
2.8.Delivery trucks and buses: Window of Opportunity for 48V has closed
2.9.Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks/ vans
2.10.Greater achievement and ambition in 2018
2.11.Peak car, ICE and lead acid battery before 2031
2.12.Many changes 2017-2050
2.13.Move to higher voltages for "born electric" vehicles
3.1.Alfa Romeo Italy
3.2.Aston Martin Lagonda UK
3.3.Audi Germany
3.4.Bentley UK
3.5.BMW Germany
3.6.Buick USA
3.7.Cadillac USA
3.8.Chang'an Motors China
3.9.FAW and China
3.10.FCA USA/ Italy
3.11.Ferrari Italy
3.12.Ford USA
3.13.Geely China
3.14.General Motors USA
3.15.Honda Japan
3.16.Hyundai Korea
3.17.Jaguar Land Rover UK
3.18.Kia Korea
3.19.Mahindra & Mahindra India
3.20.Mazda Japan
3.21.Mercedes-Benz Germany
3.22.Mitsubishi Motors Japan
3.23.Nissan Japan
3.24.Porsche Germany
3.25.PSA France
3.26.Renault France
3.27.SAIC-GM China
3.28.SsangYong Korea
3.29.Skoda Czech Republic
3.30.Suzuki Japan
3.31.Tata Motors and India
3.32.Toyota Japan
3.33.Volkswagen Germany
3.34.Volvo Motors Sweden
4.1.Running out of development potential
4.2.Transitional technology
4.3.Operating modes, design priorities
4.4.Volvo Group Trucks view
4.5.Cars: Continental view
4.6.Cars: Daimler view
5.2.Leading players, options, viewpoints
5.3.Rotating electric machines REM: e-machines
5.3.1.Technology choices
5.3.2.Evolution to multifunctional rotating machines
5.3.3.Ssangyong, Bosch, CPT and other views
5.3.4.Bosch "E-Machine"
5.3.5.CPT (Federal Mogul Powertrain)
5.3.6.Delphi 48V MH motor generator
5.3.8.Borg Warner
5.3.9.Technology roadmap for REM for vehicles 2018-2050
5.4.Power electronics
5.4.1.DC-DC converter: Intersil
5.4.2.DC-DC converter TT Electronics etc.
5.4.3.Si vs SiC, GaN power components
5.4.4.Future 48V motor controllers
5.4.5.Technology roadmap 2018-2040 power electronics
5.4.6.Integrating converter and battery management
5.5.Energy storage for 48V mild hybrid
5.5.2.Roadmap of improvement
5.5.3.Powertrain battery choices
5.5.4.Ford view
5.5.5.LGChem view
5.5.6.Toshiba view
5.5.7.Bosch lithium-ion 48V mild hybrid battery
5.5.8.Johnson Controls
5.5.9.Samsung SDI
5.5.11.A123 Systems
5.5.12.After lithium-ion
5.5.13.Technology roadmap: vehicle energy storage 2018-2040
5.6.Fuelled propulsion unit
5.6.2.Engine downsizing and boosting
5.6.3.Mahle engine downsizing for 48V MH
5.6.4.Thermal propulsion systems roadmap 2018-2040
5.7.48V superchargers issues
5.7.3.Aeristech e-supercharger
5.8.Energy harvesting including regeneration

Report Statistics

Slides 245
Forecasts to 2028

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