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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
1.1. | Purpose and scope of this report |
1.1.1. | General |
1.1.2. | Key market features |
1.1.3. | Timeline electric land vehicles 2019-2030 |
1.1.4. | Timeline electric aircraft 2019-2030: some indicative events |
1.1.5. | Traction machine-with-controller value market: new vehicles 2029 % by vehicle application |
1.1.6. | Where the profit will lie: Traction machine value gross margin 2029 % of total market gross margin earned |
1.2. | Market dynamics and 2019-2029 share by type and application |
1.3. | Electric vehicles compared to non-electric vehicles |
1.4. | Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air |
1.4.1. | Choices and newly popular types |
1.4.2. | Overall motor choices now and in future for the largest value EV market - on-road |
1.4.3. | Patent analysis: switched reluctance motors |
1.4.4. | Patent analysis: axial flux motors |
1.5. | Examples of machine technologies in action |
1.5.1. | Overview |
1.5.2. | Traction motor opportunities off road, often more profitable, by power kW |
1.6. | Nine traction machine trends 2019-2029 |
1.6.1. | Multifunction and integration |
1.6.2. | Proliferation |
1.6.3. | Product mix |
1.6.4. | Vertical integration and in-wheel motors |
1.6.5. | Power acceptance and power delivery increase |
1.6.6. | Voltage increase |
1.6.7. | Weight decrease and less metal, more electronics in the motor + controller |
1.6.8. | Less cooling |
1.6.9. | Permanent magnets more popular but probably eventually unnecessary |
1.7. | But it is not that simple! |
1.7.1. | Time |
1.7.2. | Company experience and preferences |
1.8. | In-wheel motors for electric vehicles evolving fast |
1.9. | Market values and types used by country |
1.9.1. | China |
1.9.2. | Europe |
1.9.3. | USA |
1.9.4. | Switched reluctance rapidly gains share |
1.10. | Global shares by technology |
1.10.1. | Motor technologies: 2017 global EV car market shares |
1.10.2. | Motor technologies: 2018 global EV market shares |
1.11. | Machine technology mix by vehicle type |
1.11.1. | Pure electric cars 2013-2029 |
1.11.2. | Plug-in hybrid cars 2013-2029 |
1.11.3. | Non-plug-in hybrid cars 2013-2029 |
1.11.4. | 48V mild hybrid cars 2013-2029 |
1.11.5. | e-buses 2013-2029 |
1.11.6. | Electric forklifts 2013-2029 |
1.11.7. | Manned multicopters and derivatives 2013-2029 |
1.11.8. | Two wheel scooters 2013-2029 |
1.11.9. | Golf cars 2013-2029 |
1.11.10. | Mobility for disabled 2017-2029 |
1.11.11. | Machine technologies: global share in battery electric lawnmowers 2017-2029 |
1.11.12. | Drones, consumer and prosumer 2013-2029 |
1.12. | Machine market value $bn, kW 2013-2029 |
1.12.1. | Pure electric cars |
1.12.2. | Plug-in hybrid cars |
1.12.3. | Non-plug-in hybrid electric cars |
1.12.4. | 48V mild hybrid cars |
1.12.5. | Electric buses |
1.12.6. | Electric forklifts |
1.12.7. | Consumer and prosumer drones |
1.12.8. | Toy drones |
1.12.9. | Manned multicopters and derivatives |
1.12.10. | Electric scooters |
1.12.11. | Electric motorbikes |
1.12.12. | Battery electric lawn mower, golf car, disabled mobility |
1.13. | Induction motor breakthrough? |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | Past, present and future |
2.1.1. | Overview |
2.1.2. | Global car, bus and truck making in a race for pure electric |
2.1.3. | Here comes China: buying brands, routes to market and strongly innovating |
2.1.4. | Chinese NEV sales breakdown Jan-Aug 2018 |
2.1.5. | Electric bikes in China: the party is over |
2.2. | Leaders and market drivers by applicational sector |
2.3. | Powertrain evolution |
2.4. | Pure electric vehicle viability: small vehicles first |
2.5. | League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion |
2.6. | EV manufacturer numbers by sector showing where most are profitable |
2.7. | Technology choices for traction e-machines |
2.7.1. | Overview |
2.7.2. | Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air |
2.7.3. | Avoiding rare earths: Honda PM machines, other routes |
2.8. | Acquisitions increase: Tier One suppliers gain SR, 48VMH, direct drives |
2.8.1. | Nidec-SR Drives etc., |
2.8.2. | Federal Mogul-CPT |
2.8.3. | Borg Warner-Remy, Sevcon |
2.8.4. | Dana Corporation - TM4 |
2.9. | How to design a traction machine |
2.9.1. | Advice from Tesla |
2.9.2. | Some generalities: conductor format, optimisation, integration |
2.9.3. | Case study: Visedo synchronous reluctance assistant |
2.9.4. | Case study: Tesla 3 Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor |
2.9.5. | Case study: Advanced Electric Machines SR devices |
2.9.6. | New materials in switched reluctance EV motor |
2.10. | Traction machine needs by powertrain type |
2.10.1. | Comparison |
2.10.2. | Motor-generator machine duty cycle, type, function |
2.10.3. | Motor-generator REM improvements needed, number of manufacturers/ developers |
2.11. | How to make a 48V full hybrid vehicle |
3. | VOLTAGE TRENDS, TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS, HUGE 48V MH OPPORTUNITY |
3.1. | Current situation |
3.2. | Car parameters by category |
3.3. | "48V is the new 12V" |
3.4. | Over 50 million 48V mild hybrids ahead |
3.4.1. | How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car |
3.4.2. | Evolution from stop-start to 48VMH |
3.4.3. | Operating modes, design priorities |
3.4.4. | Technology chosen: every option offered |
3.4.5. | Key components of 48V mild hybrid system: Audi |
3.4.6. | Mercedes went straight to integrated starter generator ISG |
3.4.7. | Delphi ISG gives second generation |
3.4.8. | Some 48V mild hybrid models promised by year |
3.4.9. | Gen 1 & 2 roadmap |
3.4.10. | Gen 3 & 4 roadmap |
3.4.11. | Manufacturer thrust and demand by region |
3.4.12. | Will 48V MH motor generators appear in trucks? |
3.4.13. | IDTechEx technology timeline - 48V and competitive market and system developments |
4. | CHASING HIGH POWER TO WEIGHT RATIO |
4.1. | Chasing high power to weight ratio: history |
4.2. | Siemens, ELAPHE, YASA |
4.2.1. | AVID EVO claim 10 kW/kg: lands $70 million of orders |
4.2.2. | Equipmake reconfigured PM motor |
4.2.3. | Magnax axial flux |
4.3. | Enabling 1000km on land |
5. | TREND TO MULTIPLE TRACTION MACHINES IN VEHICLES |
5.1. | Power and profusion of electric motors in various electric vehicle applications |
5.2. | Examples of in-wheel and in-transmission multiple motors |
5.3. | Schaeffler: 48V MH with electric modes, e-axles |
5.4. | Xtrac EV transmission: dual motors torque vectoring |
5.5. | Examples of manned electric aircraft with multiple drive motors |
5.6. | No differential or prop shaft |
5.7. | Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus |
5.8. | In wheel motors vs near wheel motors |
6. | FUTURE OF HEAVY DUTY EV MOTORS OFF ROAD |
6.1. | Charge-storing threads turn fabric into supercapacitor |
6.2. | Takeuchi TB216H hybrid mini excavator |
6.3. | All-electric Caterpillar excavator |
6.4. | Komatsu electric excavator |
6.5. | There is another motor trend coming to off road |
7. | MOTOR CONTROL TECHNOLOGY |
7.1. | Overview |
7.2. | Examples |
7.3. | Proliferation leads to simplification attempts |
7.4. | Cost and integration issues |
7.5. | Future 48V mild hybrid motor controllers |
8. | DIFFERENT TRACTION MOTOR TECHNOLOGIES IN ACTION |
8.1. | Analysis of electric motor types in 48V mild hybrid cars |
8.2. | Analysis of electric motor types in electric buses |
8.3. | Off-road industrial EVs in action |
8.3.1. | Needs are different from on-road |
8.3.2. | Asynchronous/ induction in mining vehicles |
8.3.3. | Analysis of electric motor types in electric forklifts |
8.4. | Electric aircraft in action |
8.4.1. | Analysis of electric motor types in electric aircraft |
8.4.2. | Drone electric motor type vs. price |
8.4.3. | Coreless motors used |
9. | ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES DIRECTORY OF 194 COMPANIES |
Slides | 199 |
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Forecasts to | 2029 |