Electric Trucks and Delivery Vans 2018-2028: IDTechEx

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Electric Trucks and Delivery Vans 2018-2028

Light Duty, Medium Duty, Heavy Duty

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Technology improvement with electrified road vehicles has been slow. The primary reason why trucks are now a major focus for electrification is local and national government and other regulations and incentives in the face of increasing public concern about the millions killed yearly by road vehicle emissions and the prospect of all seven billion on the planet being wiped out by global warming caused primarily by carbon dioxide emissions.
Most trucks run on diesel and the ongoing announcements by certain countries and cities that they will ban diesel from a certain date in the future causes increasing uncertainty and risk for those making and using conventional trucks, including possible collapse in resale values.
The trucking industry runs on tight margins and total cost of ownership is key, so fleet management companies delay purchases so they comply with new toughening carbon dioxide emissions laws - but the days of reckoning are now approaching. In 2018, The German government announced it will drop the tolls for electric semi trucks as of January, 1, 2019. The move by transport minister Andreas Scheuer is designed to motivate the slow electrification of truck transport as it promises savings for haulage firms.
Larger and larger vehicles will become affordable in pure electric form due to battery and other costs reducing and ICE costs increasing due to extra emission control devices being fitted to meet more onerous emissions laws. However, some EVs are bought as pure electric earlier for other reasons such as indoor working, the wish to take a lead in tackling urban pollution, tightening emissions laws or having the fast, accurate response needed for various degrees of autonomy up to driverless operation.
IDTechEx has prepared this report because ever larger vehicles become viable in pure electric form, and now it is the turn of on-road trucks. Primarily this is due to the all-important cost of ownership being lower a few years from now. We also included small vans that have been used in pure electric form for 130 years because they are of interest to the same logistics, retailing and industrial companies.
The report covers technical and marketing aspects, by segmenting the market into light-duty electric vehicles (LDV), medium-duty electric vehicles (MDV), and heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDV). The main models across these categories under development are presented, together with innovations in enabling technologies like powertrains, axles, and battery packs. With a global coverage, this report aims at informing users about the size of the market and the underlying opportunities, also in terms of energy storage sources: will Li-ion batteries or fuel cells capture most of the market for long-haul transport applications? A detailed split over battery chemistry is also provided, detailing how NMC, LFP, and other cathode materials will capture the total addressable market.
This technical document is complemented with information on autonomous driving for the trucking industry, as well as enabling technologies like smart roads and charging infrastructure. This report is intended to be useful to all in the value chain from materials and research organisations to parts and systems suppliers, operators, legislators and others. It is the only up to date comprehensive coverage of the subject based on thorough research worldwide.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Purpose and scope of this report
1.2.Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets
1.3.The end game is not as popularly portrayed
1.4.Electrification roadmap
1.5.Who is being disrupted?
1.6.Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
1.7.Specialty vehicles
1.8.More carrot, more stick
1.9.Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
1.10.Benefits from truck and van electrification
1.11.Pure electric vehicle viability: small vehicles first
1.12.Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
1.13.Need for a systems approach
1.14.Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks/ vans
2.1.Urban pollution
2.2.Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
2.3.CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
2.4.Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification
2.5.GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015
2.6.Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015
2.7.CO2 emission from road transport, EU-28, 2015
2.8.CO2 emission from road transport
2.9.Projected global freight activity and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050
2.10.The state of the art in alternative drivetrains
2.11.Market for urban goods transport grows rapidly
2.12.Market for e-commercially transported goods
2.13.Share of US grocery market
2.14.The worldwide freight transport industry
2.15.Euro 6 emissions standard adoption around the world
2.16.Fuel emissions policies around the world
2.17.Electric trucks and vans cut pollution faster than cars
2.18.EU initiatives to offset additional powertrain weight
2.19.Fuel saving technology areas
2.20.The easy way out of emissions control: aerodynamics
2.21.Aerodynamics: Shell Airflow Starship
2.22.Other avenues for fuel efficiency: lightweighting
2.23.Is retrofitting an economically viable option?
2.24.Electric powertrain options for trucks
2.25.Start-stop electrification and other fuel efficiency measures
2.26.Maxwell's Ultracapacitor-Based Engine Start Module
2.27.December 2018: European Union agrees 30% cut in truck CO2 emissions
3.1.The worldwide freight transport industry
3.2.Value chain rewritten
3.3.Different segments of goods transportation by land
3.4.Types of popular on-road truck
3.5.Existing truck classifications
4.1.The worldwide freight transport industry - EU
4.2.Pollutant emissions have been slashed to near-zero levels
4.3.Main truck brands in Europe
4.4.Truck sales in EU-28 by size and brand, 2016
4.5.Vans in Europe
4.6.Vans in EU-28 - market share by brand, fuel and sales, 2016
4.7.Best-selling vans in EU-28, 2016
4.8.CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by brand, 2009-2016
4.9.CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by country, 2016
5.1.The worldwide freight transport industry - USA
5.2.US truck population by vehicle type
5.3.HDV market share in the US
5.4.Average Daily Truck Traffic on the National Highway System, 2012
5.5.Industry issues according to US truckers
5.6.Average truck age in the US
5.7.Alternative fuel choices for trucks in the US
5.8.The cost of trucking in the United States
5.9.Average U.S. On-Highway Diesel Prices, 2008 - 2016
5.10.Repair & maintenance, another running cost for US truckers
5.11.Nobody wants to be a truck driver in the US
5.12.The solution: electric, autonomous trucks?
6.1.Truck transport business in Japan
6.2.The number of truck carriers has plateaued
6.3.CO2 emissions from trucks
6.4.Main truck brands in Japan
6.5.Historic truck sales in Japan
6.6.Medium and heavy duty truck sales in Japan
6.7.Large and medium-sized trucks market share
7.1.The worldwide freight transport industry - China
7.2.HDV registrations in China by province, by type, and brand
7.3.Truck engine supplier relationships in China
7.4.Chinese truck joint ventures
7.5.China's truck market segments
7.6.China exports its trucks too
7.7.Buses down in China, trucks up
7.8.China's first emissions testing standard for heavy-duty vehicles
7.9.Argonne National Labs
8.1.The worldwide freight transport industry - Russia
8.2.Other markets - Mexico
8.3.A visual history of commercial hybrid trucks
9.1.An industry changing from the ground up
9.2.Last Mile vehicle needs and challenges
9.3.Small vehicles that move the local economy
9.4.Retrofitting of old delivery vans
9.5.Harrod's electric van
9.6.Functions required
9.7.UPS to transform diesel trucks into electric vehicles
9.8.Deutsche Post DHL runs 5000 StreetScooters
9.9.Nissan e-NV200
9.11.Renault Kangoo Z.E.
9.12.Renault Master Z.E.
9.13.Citröen Berlingo Electric / Peugeot Partner Electric
9.14.LDV/Saic Maxus EV80
9.15.Iveco Daily Electric
9.16.Mercedes Benz eVito
9.17.Mercedes Benz eSprinter
9.18.Daimler Vision Van
9.19.Volkswagen e-Crafter
9.20.Ford Transit Custom PHEV
9.21.LEVC taxi-based PHEV van
9.22.Dongfeng Motor Corporation
9.23.Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV
9.24.Bakery Vehicle 1
9.26.TU Munich aCar
9.27.Tropos Motors ABLE
9.28.Polaris GEM eL XD
10.1.A category that is difficult to define
10.2.Fuso eCanter
10.5.Iveco Dual Energy
10.6.Alkane and evLaboratory MoU
10.7.Geely and Via Motors to make electric truck
10.8.Royal Mail with all-electric vans
10.9.Zero Truck
10.10.Chanje vans
10.11.Efficient Drivetrains Inc
10.12.Dongfeng Motor Corporation
10.13.List of Commercial Medium Duty Vehicles
10.14.Medium Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects
11.2.EDF: electric trucks to disrupt highway transport
11.3.MAN e-mobility roadmap
11.4.Why Daimler is pushing for electric trucks
11.5.VW and Navistar to use joint e-drivetrain for trucks
11.6.Cummins announces acquisition of Brammo
11.7.Cummins Acquires Johnson Matthey's Automotive Battery Systems Business
11.8.Scania and Northvolt partnership
11.9.Hino Motors
11.10.Orange EV
11.11.BMW and SCHERM
11.12.Tesla Semi
11.13.Tesla's New Semi Already Has Some Rivals
11.14.Daimler eActros
11.16.Timeline of Daimler's electric truck models
11.17.Hyundai rushes to electrify commercial vehicles
11.18.Mack Trucks
11.19.BYD electric truck assembly plant in Ontario, Canada
11.20.Motiv Power Systems
11.21.Efficient Drivetrains Inc
11.22.Atlas Copco adds to haulage truck range
11.23.VDL will present its Electric Truck early in 2019
11.24.E-Force One
11.25.Renault and Groupe Delanchy
11.27.eMoss - pure EV trucks
11.28.eMoss - electric trucks with range extender
11.29.eTruck from eMoss and Tampere University
11.30.Shannxi Automotive PHEV Class 8 cement mixer truck
11.31.Hybrid upfit system for trucks
11.32.BYD Delivers First All-Electric Garbage Truck To Palo Alto
11.33.First electric truck by VDL
11.35.Thor Trucks
11.36.Renault to sell electric trucks in 2019
11.37.Volvo to reveal electric semi truck for 2019
11.38.Volvo with Samsung for full-electric trucks
11.39.List of commercial Heavy Duty Vehicles
11.40.Heavy Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects
11.41.Some electric trucks compared
12.1.Powertrain focus
12.2.Motor-generator REM duty cycle, type, function
12.3.A matter of use cases
12.4.Heavy duty powertrains by application
12.5.ICE vs. parallel hybrid drivetrain
12.6.Eaton Hybrid Electric System Layout
12.7.Anatomy of a hybrid electric van
12.8.Waste heat recovery (WHR) in a hybrid powertrain
12.9.CO2eq emissions in different heavy duty vehicles
12.10.Hybrid upfit system for trucks
12.11.TEVA / JAC
12.12.Mahle Range Extender
12.13.The more battery capacity the better, right?
12.14.Ricardo's view of long haul options
13.1.Fuel cell vehicles will never be mainstream
13.2.Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
13.3.The need for long range beyond range extenders
13.4.What fuel cell vans used to look like
13.5.What fuel cell vans look like today
13.6.Fuel cell trucks in China
13.7.Fuel cells and trucks today
13.8.Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
13.9.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - driving range
13.10.Are batteries viable for long-haul?
13.11.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - cost
13.12.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - efficiency
13.13.Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling
13.14.Hydrogen refuelling station
13.15.Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
13.16.Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
13.17.Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
13.18.Anheuser-Busch Makes Record Order of 800 Nikola Trucks
13.19.Ballard and Kenworth
13.20.Ballard Fuel Cell Module to Power Hybrid UPS Delivery Van Trial Program in California
13.21.Ballard and Hyster-Yale
13.23.ULEM Co
13.24.How bio-waste generates hydrogen
13.25.Nikola and Bosch partnership - hydrogen fuel cell
13.26.DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
13.28.Fuel Cell vehicle demonstration projects
14.1.Top challenges for commercial vehicles
14.2.Differences between e-car and e-truck
14.3.How many km do trucks travel in a year and in a day
14.4.Testing and Demonstration of PHEV Parcel Delivery Vehicles
14.5.TCO of a diesel truck vs. an all-electric truck
14.6.Financial benefits for the freight industry
14.7.Potential CO2eq reduction potential of HEV trucks
14.8.Battery makers in China see tough times
14.9.What does this imply for niche EV markets?
14.10.Commercial EVs help the others cross the Devil's Bridge
14.11.When will cost parity be reached?
14.12.Tesla sued for $2B by Nikola over alleged patent infringement
14.13.Last Mile Delivery - DHL
14.14.Last Mile Delivery - Amazon
14.15.The Tesla Semi Will Eclipse Diesel
14.16.Making Sense Out of Tesla's Semi Truck Economics
14.17.U.K. Truckers: Tesla Semi Performance not Important
14.18.Tesla Truck gets DHL order as shippers test Semi
14.19.Ryder To Order Tesla's Semi
14.20.Barriers to fuel-saving technologies
14.21.Trucks are only convenient below 400 km range
14.22.Cost of electricity in California by time of day ($/kWh)
14.23.Strategies for reducing the cost of electricity for xEVs
14.24.The total cost of ownership of electric trucks
14.25.The economics of battery swapping for electric trucks
14.26.The economics of fuel cells in trucks
14.27.The economics of e-roads and catenaries
14.28.Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
14.29.Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
14.30.E-truck adoption rate forecasts in California
14.31.Powertrain cost comparison - China
14.32.Powertrain cost comparison - Europe
14.33.Powertrain cost comparison - United States
14.34.Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
15.1.The key enabling technologies are changing
15.2.Energy storage
15.3.Forecasts of energy density by type 2018-2028
15.4.Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
15.6.EVs catching fire get media attention, but ICEs are not immune to that either
15.7.Battery choices at MAN Truck & Bus
15.8.Bosch and batteries for trucks
15.9.GVI - battery packs for delivery vans
15.10.EnerDel - battery packs for trucks
15.11.Supercapacitors in heavy trucks
15.12.Skeleton Tech: supercap opportunity
15.13.Iveco and Supercaps - a cost perspective
15.14.Iveco and Supercaps - a history of tests
15.15.Iveco and high power- LTO, NCM, or Supercaps?
15.16.Motor technology choices
15.17.Technology preference by type of vehicle
15.18.REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
15.19.Trend to high voltage, high speed motors
15.20.Oerlikon SR motor in large hybrids
15.21.Planned PM synchronous heavy duty drive UQM, Eaton,Pi Innovo
15.22.Electric Wheel Hub Drives
15.23.Dana in-axle motor
15.24.Move to integration - Volkswagen's approach
15.25.Examples of trend to product integration
15.26.Example of multiple REM per vehicle
15.27.Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
15.28.LeTourneau switched reluctance
15.30.BPW axles
15.32.Cool Tech (formerly HPEV Inc.)
15.33.Reinventing wind turbines for use on boats, ships, aircraft, land vehicles
15.34.Charging needs for LCV and MCV/HCV
15.35.Opportunity charging makes batteries for trucks smaller
16.1.There's Now An Electric Highway In California
16.2.Mack demonstrates catenary-powered PHEV
16.3.Volvo's electric roads point to battery-free EV future
16.4.Dynamic EV charging
16.7.University of Washington
16.8.Auckland University
17.1.Joint venture for autonomous electric trucks
17.2.Joint venture: CEO statements
17.3.What Does Tesla's Automated Truck Mean for Truckers?
17.4.Automation levels in trucking explained
17.5.Uber acquiring Otto sets the scene on fire?
17.6.Embark: Hybrid approach for autonomous truck driving on highways
17.7.Starsky Robotics: retrofitting existing trucks and making them remote-controlled
17.8.Baidu: becoming the Android of autonomous vehicles
17.9.TuSimple: Chinese Al provider for level-4 autonomous trucks
17.10.Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (market share as % total truck unit sales)
17.11.Historical price evolution for cameras, primary/secondary memory, computing and photovoltaics
17.12.Ten-year and twenty-year component-segmented price projections for hardware for autonomous mobility
17.13.Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (in unit numbers and dollars)
17.14.Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for the value of automation hardware/components
17.15.The economic case for autonomous trucks
17.16.Pelton: V2V links to enable closer platooning
18.1.Assumptions behind the forecasts - light-duty vehicles (LDV)
18.2.Assumptions behind the forecasts - medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MDV/HDV)
18.3.Average battery size for vans and trucks (kWh) 2018-2028
18.4.LDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
18.5.LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
18.6.LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
18.7.LDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028
18.8.MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
18.9.MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) - battery-powered and fuel cells 2018-2028
18.10.MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
18.11.MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
18.12.MDV/HDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028

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Slides 387
Forecasts to 2028

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