Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2015-2025: IDTechEx

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2015-2025

Hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air


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This master report summarising and forecasting every sector of the EV industry remains unique. It adds new sectors as they become substantial, the latest being car-like microEVs homologated as quadricycles in Europe.
 
In the last year it has become a more closely integrated market - pure electric and hybrid whether on land, water or airborne. For example, Nissan has launched hybrid cars selling in tens of thousands yearly. The e-bike company Brammo took orders for 4,000 of its $20,000 record-breaking e-motorbike on its launch in the USA. Previously, e-motorbikes have been merely a curiosity.
 
Many profitable niches are emerging just as the largest major sectors are changing in importance; the industrial and commercial sector is now bigger and much more profitable than e-cars, and is set to remain so for at least eight more years.
 
Figure 1: Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2024, by applicational sector
 
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
All components are changing with supercapacitors sometimes replacing or partly replacing batteries and also new types of battery, energy harvesting, power electronics and structure powering growth in this already huge and prosperous business. It is comprehensively forecasted only in this master report and the subsidiary reports on the segments. Disruptive change is now the norm and Apple-like inspiration and technological innovation is at last being seen.
 
The fruits of all this are truly spectacular; including such things as the Marian fast surface boat that acts as a submarine when necessary, the fixed-wing plane that will stay aloft for five years on sunshine and the flying jet ski. An amphibious hybrid plane is also going into production with military robot jellyfish, bats and swarming flies. The race is on to make extremely short take-off and landing (ESTL) personal planes and air taxis, some that take-off and land vertically in your garden or from the "pocket airport" on top of a regular airport building.
10 year forecasts across all EV sectors
This report gives the unit numbers, average vehicle prices, and total value for ten years for the following vehicle types:
  • Hybrid cars
  • Pure electric cars
  • Heavy industrial
  • Buses
  • Lighting industrial/commercial
  • Micro EV/quadricycle
  • Golf car and motorized gold caddy
  • Mobility for the disabled
  • Two-wheel and allied
  • Military
  • Marine
  • Other
 
Figure 2: Sales forecast for some volume sectors of electric vehicles
 
 
Source: IDTechEx
Comprehensive applicational and geographic spread
This report is uniquely comprehensive in applicational and geographical spread. Primarily it presents statistics and forecasts including back up data such as conventional vehicle sales and market drivers. There is even comparative data such as statistics and forecasts by other analysts and by regional trade associations. There is some coverage of technology trends and considerable tabulation of manufacturers and by type of vehicle made and which are world leaders in value sales and why. There is little anecdotal text and information already available on the web, the illustrations and tables being largely original and deriving from IDTechEx analysis and private sources as well as extensive interviews.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.The value market for electric vehicles EVs of all types
1.1.Forecast assumptions and market drivers by category of hybrid and pure electric EV 2015-2025
1.1.Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2015-2025, by applicational sector
1.2.Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2015-2025, by applicational sector, rounded
1.2.Numbers of electric vehicles, in thousands, sold globally, 2015-2025, by applicational sector
1.2.IDTechEx electric vehicles market forecasts 2015-2025
1.3.EV market 2015 and 2025 identifying hybrids
1.3.Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2015-2025, by applicational sector, rounded
1.3.Ex-factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2015-2025 by applicational sector, rounded
1.4.Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2015, percentage by applicational sector
1.4.Ex-factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2015-2025, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4.Batteries and motors numbers 2015-2025
1.5.League table of largest EV manufacturers
1.5.Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2015-2025 by applicational sector
1.5.Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2025, percentage by applicational sector
1.6.Range extender numbers (thousand) 2015-2025
1.6.Number of hybrid vehicles sold globally (in thousands), this being approximately equal to the number of range extender sets in later years
1.6.Market sectors and technology trends
1.7.Small and Medium Enterprises SME come to the fore
1.7.Number of hybrid vehicles sold globally (in thousands), this being approximately equal to the number of range extender sets in later years
1.7.Range extender unit price (US$) 2015-2025
1.8.Range extender market value (US$ million) 2015-2025
1.8.Range extender numbers (thousand), unit price (US$) and market value (US$ million) 2015-2025
1.8.Numbers of manufacturers
1.9.Mark ups through the value chain
1.9.Electric motor-generator sets and traction motors alone when they also act as generators market value $ billion paid by vehicle manufacturer 2014-2025
1.9.Electric motor-generator sets and traction motors alone when they also act as generators market value $ billion paid by vehicle manufacturer 2014-2025
1.10.Basic schematic of pure EV power train
1.10.EV profitability by sector
1.10.Electric "cars" - many very different types
1.10.1.Pure electric cars
1.10.1.Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars
1.10.2.Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars
1.10.3.Plug-in vehicle sales
1.11.Market by territory
1.11.Top 13 manufacturers of electric vehicles in 2014 showing rounded gross sales value of EVs ex factory by segment, % market share and trend of position. For 2013, first division in red, second division in blue and third division in
1.11.Size of vehicle, broadly indicated by price and battery kWh, related to when up-front cost becomes competitive with a conventional version
1.11.1.Global
1.11.2.Europe
1.11.3.China
1.11.4.USA
1.12.Lessons from EV related events
1.12.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in 2014 by application with numbers for China
1.12.SMEs have more opportunity
1.13.The various types of car, the precise definitions, regulations and user preferences varying greatly between countries
1.13.Main market drivers
1.13.Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.14.Monthly US electric vehicle sales for January to October2013 according to trade association EDTA
1.14.kWh per passenger for conventional or electric on-road vehicles related to type of vehicle and showing cars to be uniquely inefficient
1.15.The Daimler Smart, left, is a mainstream car subject to tax, insurance, crash tests etc whereas the G-Whiz from India, right, is registered as a quadricycle and was the best-selling pure electric car in the UK for ten years with s
1.15.The value of the electric vehicle market by territory East Asia, Europe, North America, Other 2015 and 2025 percentage
1.16.NEV output in China for 2011 and 2012 including exports
1.16.Renault Twizy quadricycle which is selling over ten thousand within two years from launch. The standard model has no windows
1.17.Chinese micro-EV cars in China. Most of them have three wheels
1.18.Cumulative and monthly plug-in on-road vehicle sales in the USA through 2013 according to trade association EDTA
1.19.The tiny sales of pure electric on-road vehicle sales in Europe showing carrier goods EVs/ light industrial and commercial vehicles outselling pure electric passenger EVs, according to trade association AVERE
1.20.Adoption of different car power trains past and present
1.21.Distribution of electric vehicles in circulation according to model to end of 2012
1.22.Number of electric 4-wheelers in Europe
1.23.Number of electric 2-wheelers in Europe
1.24.Unit sales in China 2008-2012: total autos, total passenger cars and buses and BEV and HEV/PHEV
1.25.Monthly new PHEV and AEV sales by model to August 2014
1.26.Yearly new HEV sales by model to August 2014
1.27.Electric Drive Vehicle Share of new vehicle sales to August 2014
1.28.Monthly new EDV sales and gasoline prices to December 2014
1.29.Brammo high performance motorbike
1.30.Apple-like innovation for the disabled- Omnichair
1.31.Mining vehicles for open mines (over 90% of all mines) will no longer have 2-3 MW diesel mega-trucks climbing the sides but electric mega-trucks at top and bottom
1.32.New vehicles with asynchronous traction motors
1.33.Electric cars are mainly series parallel hybrid today with two motors but otherwise very different, this Mitsubishi being very different in all other respects from market leader the Toyota Prius
1.34.Work on using pure electric and plug in hybrid small vehicles as farming power supplies
1.35.GaN inverter and components for EVs exhibited in Osaka Japan by GaN Systems of Canada September2014
1.36.BMW i8 hybrid car with three-cylinder range extender and gull wing doors launched 2013, deliveries 2015
1.37.The dream of photovoltaics in fields and Building Integrated Photovoltaics BIPV powering EVs
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Definitions and scope of this report
2.1.143 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel
2.1.Electric vehicle value chain
2.1.1.Organisations involved in the EV industry value chain
2.1.2.Commonality
2.1.3.Key components and systems
2.1.4.Batteries
2.1.5.Efficiency
2.2.Hybrid electric vehicles
2.2.Energy, number of riders and energy per 100 kilometers per person for different on-road travel options
2.2.Energy per 100 kilometers per person for different on-road travel options
2.2.1.Here come range extenders
2.2.2.Structural components
2.3.Benefits
2.3.Global automotive production by country 2013
2.3.Carbon Intensity CO2 kg/kWh and % Fossil fuel in power sector
2.3.1.How green are electric vehicles really?
2.3.2.Contrast global automotive production 2012: major polluter
2.4.LCA greenhouse emissions of a compact car with different drive trains
2.5.Carbon emissions, in grams CO2 per km, of a selection of cars for sale in the UK
3.HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
3.1.What is included
3.1.27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
3.1.Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
3.2.Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
3.2.Percentage split of global manufacture of heavy industrial trucks
3.2.Challenges
3.3.Listing of manufacturers
3.3.Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist as a new powertrain option shown yellow in powertrain options
3.3.Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2013
3.3.1.Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck
3.3.2.Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs
3.4.Survey of expected powertrains including EV options
3.4.Lift truck market demand in 2013
3.5.World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments
3.5.Market size
3.6.Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist
3.6.Survey of expected powertrains
4.LIGHT INDUSTRIAL, BUSES AND OTHER COMMERCIAL EVS
4.1.What is included
4.1.150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
4.1.Increase in urban delivery 2010-2025
4.1.1.Large and diverse sector
4.1.2.Mainly on-road
4.1.3.Move to cities
4.1.4.Hybrid and pure electric trend
4.1.5.Sub categories
4.2.Buses
4.2.Electric bus in Nepal
4.2.1.Vans, pick-up trucks and larger on-road trucks
4.3.Market drivers
4.3.Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
4.4.Garbage collecting electric car
4.4.Airport EVs: Ground Support Equipment GSE
4.4.1.Airbus signs MoU to develop airliner electric taxi system
4.5.Small people-movers
4.6.Light industrial aids
4.7.Listing of manufacturers
5.MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED
5.1.Compelling and enduring need
5.1.Statistics relevant to the challenge to society caused by ageing population
5.1.Percentage of dependent elderly 1970 to 2040
5.2.New Pihsiang Shoprider pure electric mobility vehicle for the disabled
5.2.Features of mobility vehicles that may hold up the price by offering more in future
5.2.The demographic time-bomb
5.2.1.Ageing population, obesity and the dependent elderly
5.2.2.Laws make mobility easier
5.3.The Electric Car (INEC-KARO) for the disabled from Interchina Industry Group
5.3.Types of mobility vehicle
5.3.The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and Mainland China by value of vehicles for the disabled 2005, 2010 and 2015
5.3.1.Interchina Industry Group China
5.4.83 examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country
5.4.Listing of manufacturers
5.4.1.Growth by creating new markets
6.TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES
6.1.Prices and performance of electric two wheelers
6.1.What is included
6.1.Gasoline two wheelers G2W and electric two wheelers E2W sales compared to passenger vehicles 1991-2006 in China
6.1.1.China - unprecedented growth of electric two wheelers
6.1.2.Other countries
6.2.105 examples of manufacturers of electric motorcycles, two wheel EVs and electric quad bikes
6.2.Suzuki Burgman Fuel Cell Scooter powered by Intelligent Energy
6.2.Prices and performances compared
6.2.1.Hybrid motorcycles
6.3.Largest suppliers of electric bicycles by number (not in order)
6.3.Market drivers
6.3.e-bikes parked in Yangzhou China
6.3.1.Bicycles and electric bicycles
6.3.2.The big winners in western markets
6.4.34 sources of two wheelers in China by brand, region and battery chemistry
6.4.Electric mopeds parked in Cheghdu China
6.4.Statistics for all bicycles
6.5.Listing of manufacturers
6.5.World bicycle and automoblie production, 1950-2007
6.5.Listing of light electric scooter makers in China. Most use lead-acid battery chemistry but there is a move to lithium-ion batteries
6.5.2.China
6.6.Forecasts
7.CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICROEV, QUADRICYCLE, E TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR
7.1.Many names, common factors
7.1.85 examples of car and microEV manufacturers beyond golf car, by country
7.1.IMAs "Colibri" Micro EV presented at the Geneva Motorshow
7.2.Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars, in the context of two wheelers and Europe. Love them or hate them?
7.2.19 examples of golf EV manufacturers
7.2.Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs
7.3.Estrima Birò MicroEV Quadricycle removable battery
7.3.The Daimler Smart, left, is a mainstream car subject to tax, insurance, crash tests etc whereas the G-Whiz from India, right, is registered as a quadricycle and was the best-selling pure electric car in the UK for ten years with s
7.4.Renault Twizy quadricycle which is selling over ten thousand within two years from launch. The standard model has no windows
7.4.Philippines: big new commitments to e trikes
7.5.Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars
7.5.Chinese micro-EV cars in China. Most of them have three wheels
7.6.Estrima Birò microEV and battery removal
7.6.Golf cars
7.6.1.What is included
7.6.2.Market drivers
7.6.3.Prices and profits
7.6.4.Listing of manufacturers
7.6.5.Forecasts
7.7.E-trikes
8.PURE ELECTRIC AND HYBRID CARS
8.1.The market for electric cars
8.1.The top electric vehicles manufacturers by ex factory gross sales value taken from the IDTechEx Electric Vehicle Market Portal (figures in US$ billion 2014)
8.1.Homologated on-road electric cars at the awkward tipping point between pure electric and hybrid vehicles of other types
8.1.1.Definitions
8.1.2.Cars as part of the big picture
8.1.3.Further details of e-car trends
8.1.4.League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies
8.1.5.Awkward tipping point
8.1.6.Forecasting challenges
8.2.Battery collaborations of selected companies
8.2.Disruptive change and merging of all parts
8.2.Primary electric traction motor criteria by type of hybrid or pure electric vehicle showing cars needing to be "all things to all men".
8.3.Technology: everything will change disruptively
8.3.Range extenders including fuel cells
8.3.Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles but are also seen in cars shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles
8.4.Batteries
8.4.Load-bearing supercapacitors as structural components. Top left: Volvo experimental car trunk lid that is a supercapacitor. Top right: Partner Imperial College London's supercapacitor textile being developed for load bearing compo
8.5.Example of integrated components coming in
8.5.Electric motors
8.6.Power electronics
8.6.Examples of 2015 hybrid cars
8.6.1.Increased performance and complexity
8.7.Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye
8.7.Mazda pure electric car in production with supercapacitor across battery (vertical device by nearside front wheel)
8.7.1.Across batteries in cars
8.7.2.Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars
8.7.3.Across fuel cells in cars
8.8.Progress of Toyota and Tesla
8.8.Toyota supercapacitor-only concept car and precedents
8.8.1.Market and technology priorities
8.8.2.Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership
9.MILITARY
9.1.Examples of military EVs
9.1.Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven
9.1.Oshkosh truck
9.1.1.Hummer USA / China
9.1.2.Quantum Technologies USA Aggressor AMV
9.1.3.US Army trucks etc - ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA
9.1.4.Oshkosh Truck Corp USA
9.1.5.Electric robot vehicles USA
9.1.6.Autonomous vehicles for the military
9.2.Electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
9.2.27 suppliers of military EVs
9.2.Grizzly robot electric vehicle for the military
9.2.1.Small electrical UAVs
9.2.2.The most successful electric UAV
9.2.3.Micro nano air vehicles
9.2.4.Large electrical UAVs
9.3.Examples of military EVs - in the water
9.3.SPI electrical SUAV
9.3.1.US Naval Undersea Warfare Center
9.4.Manufacturers of military EVs
9.4.AeroVironment Raven
9.5.AeroVironment Aqua Puma UAV completes Royal Australian Navy Sea trials in 2007
9.5.Forecasts
9.6.Aurora Flight Sciences solar plane that takes off in parts and self-assembles at altitude
9.7.Large autonomous robot jellyfish
10.MARINE
10.1.44 examples of manufacturers of EV electric water craft
10.1.Hybrid tugboat
10.1.1.Hybrid and pure electric tugboats
10.2.Market segments
10.2.Leading manufacturers of remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles for sale
10.2.Engine room of the hybrid tugboat
10.2.1.Total market
10.2.2.Underwater
10.2.3.On the water
10.3.Bratt electric tugboat
10.3.Indicative prices for marine EVs in 2013
10.3.Market drivers
10.3.1.Pollution laws back electric boats - India, Europe, USA
10.3.2.Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) - Europe, USA
10.4.Electric deck boat by Leisure Life
10.4.Manufacturers by country and product
10.5.Selling prices
10.5.Electric launch
10.6.Solar powered boats for tourism cruising at 12 kph on Lake Geneva
10.6.Forecasts
11.AIRCRAFT, MOBILE ROBOTS AND OTHER EVS
11.1.36 examples of manufacturers of mobile robots, toy, leisure, research or hobbyist EVs by country and product
11.1.The Dyson robot vacuum cleaner
11.1.Definition
11.2.Market drivers
11.2.LawnBott
11.3.Listing of other manufacturers by country and product
11.4.Market size and trends
11.4.1.Non-military mobile robots - USA, UK, Japan
11.4.2.Research and hobbyist
11.4.3.Electric aircraft for civil use
11.4.4.Robotic lawn mowers
11.5.Forecasts
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