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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2016-2026

Hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air

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This master report summarising and forecasting every sector of the EV industry remains unique. It adds new sectors as they become substantial, the latest being car-like micro EVs homologated as quadricycles in Europe. There are currently 45 sectors analysed.
In the last year it has become a more closely integrated market - pure electric and hybrid whether on land, water or airborne. For example, Nissan has launched hybrid cars selling in tens of thousands yearly.
Many profitable niches are emerging just as the largest major sectors are changing in importance; the industrial and commercial sector is now bigger and much more profitable than e-cars, and is set to remain so for at least eight more years.
Figure 1: Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2026, by applicational sector
Source: IDTechEx
All components are changing with supercapacitors sometimes replacing or partly replacing batteries and also new types of battery, energy harvesting, power electronics and structure powering growth in this already huge and prosperous business. It is comprehensively forecasted only in this master report and the subsidiary reports on the segments. Disruptive change is now the norm and Apple-like inspiration and technological innovation is at last being seen.
The fruits of all this are truly spectacular; including such things as the Marian fast surface boat that acts as a submarine when necessary, the fixed-wing plane that will stay aloft for five years on sunshine and the flying jet ski. An amphibious hybrid plane is also going into production with military robot jellyfish, bats and swarming flies. The race is on to make extremely short take-off and landing (ESTL) personal planes and air taxis, some that take-off and land vertically in your garden or from the "pocket airport" on top of a regular airport building.
10 year forecasts across all EV sectors
This report gives the unit numbers, average vehicle prices, and total value for ten years for the following vehicle types:
  • Hybrid cars
  • Pure electric cars
  • Heavy industrial
  • Buses
  • Lighting industrial/commercial
  • Micro EV/quadricycle
  • Golf car and motorized gold caddy
  • Mobility for the disabled
  • Two-wheel and allied
  • Military
  • Marine
  • Other
Figure 2: Sales forecast for some volume sectors of electric vehicles
Source: IDTechEx
Comprehensive applicational and geographic spread
This report is uniquely comprehensive in applicational and geographical spread. Primarily it presents statistics and forecasts including back up data such as conventional vehicle sales and market drivers. There is even comparative data such as statistics and forecasts by other analysts and by regional trade associations. There is some coverage of technology trends and considerable tabulation of manufacturers and by type of vehicle made and which are world leaders in value sales and why. There is little anecdotal text and information already available on the web, the illustrations and tables being largely original and deriving from IDTechEx analysis and private sources as well as extensive interviews.
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Table of Contents
1.1.The value market for electric vehicles EVs of all types
1.1.Numbers of electric vehicles, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector
1.1.Forecast assumptions and market drivers by category of hybrid and pure electric EV 2016-2026
1.2.Numbers of electric vehicles, in thousands, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector
1.2.Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector, rounded
1.2.IDTechEx electric vehicles market forecasts 2016-2026
1.3.League table of largest EV manufacturers
1.3.Ex-factory value of EVs, in millions of US dollars, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector, rounded. Excludes 48V mild hybrids which become electric vehicles in later years by having up to four brief pure electric modes
1.3.Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4.Ex-factory value of EVs, in millions of US dollars, sold globally, 2016-2026, by applicational sector, rounded. Excludes 48V mild hybrids which become electric vehicles in later years by having up to four brief pure electric modes
1.4.Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2016, percentage by applicational sector. Excludes 48V mild hybrids which become electric vehicles in later years by having up to four brief pure electric modes of operation
1.4.Market sectors and technology trends
1.4.1.Definition and technical trends
1.4.2.Car technology 2016-2031
1.4.3.Voltage trends
1.5.Small and Medium Enterprises SME come to the fore
1.5.Ex-factory value of EVs, in 2026, percentage by applicational sector. Excludes 48V mild hybrids which become electric vehicles in later years by having up to four brief pure electric modes of operation
1.5.EV profitability by sector
1.6.Top 13 manufacturers of electric vehicles in 2014 showing rounded gross sales value of EVs ex factory by segment, % market share and trend of position. For 2013, first division in red, second division in blue and third division in
1.6.Basic schematic of pure EV power train
1.6.Numbers of manufacturers
1.7.Mark ups through the value chain
1.7.Size of vehicle, broadly indicated by price and battery kWh, related to when up-front cost becomes competitive with a conventional version
1.7.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in 2014 by application with numbers for China
1.8.Main market drivers
1.8.Car market 2016-2031 by powertrain
1.8.Electric "cars" - many very different types
1.8.1.Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars
1.8.2.Terra Motors e-tuktuk/rickshaw in Southeast Asia
1.8.3.Plug-in vehicle sales
1.8.4.Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars
1.9.Market by territory
1.9.Voltage trends for pure electric and hybrid electric vehicles by land, water and air
1.9.The value of the electric vehicle market by territory East Asia, Europe, North America, Other 2016 and 2026 percentage
1.10.Lessons from EV related events
1.10.SMEs have more opportunity
1.10.Sales of new energy cars in China by model
1.11.Market share of plug in electric vehicles as a percentage of total vehicle sales
1.11.The various types of car, the precise definitions, regulations and user preferences varying greatly between countries
1.11.In-wheel motors
1.12.Range extenders
1.12.kWh per passenger for conventional or electric on-road vehicles related to type of vehicle and showing cars to be uniquely inefficient
1.13.The Daimler Smart, left, is a mainstream car subject to tax, insurance, crash tests etc whereas the G-Whiz from India, right, is registered as a quadricycle and was the best-selling pure electric car in the UK for ten years with s
1.13.Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.14.Highlights of EVS28 Seoul South Korea May 2015
1.14.Renault Twizy quadricycle which is now selling only at a modest rate. The standard model has no windows
1.15.Chinese micro-EV cars in China. Most of them have three wheels
1.16.Terra Motors R6
1.17.European homologation below cars
1.18.Hybrid and pure electric vehicle sales to 2025
1.19.Number of pure electric vehicles globally by country
1.20.Yearly sales of pure electric vehicles globally by country, personal and utility
1.21.Yearly US sales of plug-in vehicles
1.22.Utility vs car EV sales in France.
1.23.Sales in units of plug-in cars in China 2010-2014 showing fastest growth in microEVs - cars not homologated as such
1.24.Sales of plug-in cars in China through 2014 showing seasonality
1.25.Sales of electric buses in China by type 2009-2014
1.26.Monthly new PHEV and AEV sales by model to August 2014
1.27.Yearly new HEV sales by model to August 2014
1.28.Electric Drive Vehicle Share of new vehicle sales to August 2014
1.29.Monthly new EDV sales and gasoline prices to December 2014
1.30.Apple-like innovation for the disabled - Omnichair
1.31.Mining vehicles for open mines (over 90% of all mines) will no longer have 2-3 MW diesel mega-trucks climbing the sides but electric mega-trucks at top and bottom, according to Deloitte Touche.
1.32.New vehicles with asynchronous traction motors
1.33.Electric cars are mainly series parallel hybrid today with two motors but otherwise very different, this Mitsubishi being very different in all other respects from market leader the Toyota Prius
1.34.Work on using pure electric and plug in hybrid small vehicles as farming power supplies
1.35.GaN inverter and components for EVs exhibited in Osaka Japan by GaN Systems of Canada September2014
1.36.BMW i8 hybrid car with three-cylinder range extender and gull wing doors launched 2013, deliveries 2015
1.37.The dream of photovoltaics in fields and Building Integrated Photovoltaics BIPV powering EVs
1.38.Protean in-wheel
1.39.Lightweighting approaches
1.40.Future mobility vision
1.41.Mahle range extended car
1.42.Toyota Mirai and BMW fuel cell cars
1.43.Intelligent Energy fuel cell in a van
1.44.Bladon Jets gas turbine range extender
1.45.Wankel range extender
2.1.Definitions and scope of this report
2.1.Electric vehicle value chain
2.1.143 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if any, in sel
2.1.1.Organisations involved in the EV industry value chain
2.1.3.Key components and systems
2.2.Hybrid electric vehicles
2.2.Energy per 100 kilometers per person for different on-road travel options
2.2.Energy, number of riders and energy per 100 kilometers per person for different on-road travel options
2.2.1.Here come range extenders
2.2.2.Structural components
2.3.Carbon Intensity CO2 kg/kWh and % Fossil fuel in power sector
2.3.Global automotive production by country 2013
2.3.1.How green are electric vehicles really?
2.3.2.Contrast global automotive production 2012: major polluter
2.4.LCA greenhouse emissions of a compact car with different drive trains
2.5.Carbon emissions, in grams CO2 per km, of a selection of cars for sale in the UK
3.1.What is included
3.1.Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
3.1.27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
3.2.Percentage split of global manufacture of heavy industrial trucks
3.2.Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
3.3.Listing of manufacturers
3.3.Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2013
3.3.Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist as a new powertrain option shown yellow in powertrain options
3.3.1.Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck
3.3.2.Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs
3.4.Survey of expected powertrains including EV options
3.4.Lift truck market demand in 2013
3.5.World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments
3.5.Market size
3.6.Conventional car with 48 V electric torque assist
3.6.Survey of expected powertrains
4.1.What is included
4.1.Increase in urban delivery 2010-2025
4.1.150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
4.1.1.Large and diverse sector
4.1.2.Mainly on-road
4.1.3.Move to cities
4.1.4.Hybrid and pure electric trend
4.1.5.Sub categories
4.2.Electric bus in Nepal
4.2.1.Vans, pick-up trucks and larger on-road trucks
4.3.Market drivers
4.3.Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
4.4.Garbage collecting electric car
4.4.Airport EVs: Ground Support Equipment GSE
4.4.1.Airbus signs MoU to develop airliner electric taxi system
4.5.Small people-movers
4.6.Light industrial aids
4.7.Listing of manufacturers
5.1.Compelling and enduring need
5.1.Percentage of dependent elderly 1970 to 2040
5.1.Statistics relevant to the challenge to society caused by ageing population
5.2.Features of mobility vehicles that may hold up the price by offering more in future
5.2.New Pihsiang Shoprider pure electric mobility vehicle for the disabled
5.2.The demographic time-bomb
5.2.1.Ageing population, obesity and the dependent elderly
5.2.2.Laws make mobility easier
5.3.The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and Mainland China by value of vehicles for the disabled 2005, 2010 and 2015
5.3.Types of mobility vehicle
5.3.The Electric Car (INEC-KARO) for the disabled from Interchina Industry Group
5.3.2.Interchina Industry Group China
5.4.83 examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country
5.4.Listing of manufacturers
5.4.2.Growth by creating new markets
5.4.3.Mobility dynamics
6.1.Gasoline two wheelers G2W and electric two wheelers E2W sales compared to passenger vehicles 1991-2006 in China
6.1.What is included
6.1.Prices and performance of electric two wheelers
6.1.1.China - unprecedented growth of electric two wheelers
6.1.2.Other countries
6.2.Suzuki Burgman Fuel Cell Scooter powered by Intelligent Energy
6.2.105 examples of manufacturers of electric motorcycles, two wheel EVs and electric quad bikes
6.2.Prices and performances compared
6.2.2.Hybrid motorcycles
6.3.e-bikes parked in Yangzhou China
6.3.Market drivers
6.3.Largest suppliers of electric bicycles by number (not in order)
6.3.1.Bicycles and electric bicycles
6.3.2.The big winners in western markets
6.4.Electric mopeds parked in Cheghdu China
6.4.34 sources of two wheelers in China by brand, region and battery chemistry
6.4.Statistics for all bicycles
6.5.Listing of manufacturers
6.5.Listing of light electric scooter makers in China. Most use lead-acid battery chemistry but there is a move to lithium-ion batteries
6.5.World bicycle and automoblie production, 1950-2007
6.6.1.Two-wheel dynamics
7.1.Many names, common factors
7.1.IMAs "Colibri" micro EV presented at the Geneva Motorshow
7.1.85 examples of car and micro EV manufacturers beyond golf car, by country
7.2.19 examples of golf EV manufacturers
7.2.The Daimler Smart, left, is a mainstream car subject to tax, insurance, crash tests etc whereas the G-Whiz from India, right, is registered as a quadricycle and was the best-selling pure electric car in the UK for ten years with s
7.2.Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs
7.3.Estrima Birò Micro EV Quadricycle removable battery
7.3.Chinese micro-EV cars in China. Most of them have three wheels
7.4.Estrima Birò micro EV and battery removal
7.4.Philippines: big new commitments to e trikes
7.5.Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars
7.6.Golf cars
7.6.1.What is included
7.6.2.Market drivers
7.6.3.Prices and profits
7.6.4.Listing of manufacturers
8.1.Successful strategies
8.1.Technology: everything will change disruptively
8.1.Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles but are also seen in cars shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles
8.1.1.Plug-in market dynamics
8.1.2.Security of forecasts
8.1.3.New models as lead indicator
8.2.Disruptive change and merging of all parts
8.2.Load-bearing supercapacitors as structural components. Top left: Volvo experimental car trunk lid that is a supercapacitor. Top right: Partner Imperial College London's supercapacitor textile being developed for load bearing compo
8.3.Example of integrated components coming in
8.3.Range extenders including fuel cells
8.4.Electric motors
8.4.Examples of 2015 hybrid cars
8.5.GaN Systems capability late 2014
8.5.Power electronics
8.5.1.Increased performance and complexity
8.5.2.Wide band gap semiconductors
8.6.Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye
8.6.Mazda pure electric car in production with supercapacitor across battery (vertical device by nearside front wheel)
8.6.1.Across batteries in cars
8.6.2.Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars
8.6.3.Indian supercapacitor sports car
8.6.4.Across fuel cells in cars
8.7.Plugging in: when, where, why?
8.7.Toyota supercapacitor-only concept car and precedents
8.8.Nova Electric Vehicles
8.8.Progress of Toyota and Tesla
8.8.1.Market and technology priorities
8.8.2.Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership
8.9.Fuel cell cars: caution needed
8.9.Toyota Mirai
9.1.Strong demand
9.1.Oshkosh truck
9.1.Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven
9.2.27 suppliers of military EVs
9.2.Grizzly robot electric vehicle for the military
9.2.Environmental and logistics pressures
9.3.Examples of military EVs
9.3.SPI electrical SUAV
9.3.1.Hummer USA / China
9.3.2.Quantum Technologies USA Aggressor AMV
9.3.3.US Army trucks etc - ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA
9.3.4.Oshkosh Truck Corp USA
9.3.5.Electric robot vehicles USA
9.3.6.Autonomous vehicles for the military
9.4.Electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
9.4.AeroVironment Raven
9.4.1.Small electrical UAVs
9.4.2.The most successful electric UAV
9.4.3.Micro nano air vehicles
9.4.4.Large electrical UAVs
9.5.Examples of military EVs - in the water
9.5.AeroVironment Aqua Puma UAV completes Royal Australian Navy Sea trials in 2007
9.5.1.US Naval Undersea Warfare Center
9.6.Manufacturers of military EVs
9.6.Aurora Flight Sciences solar plane that takes off in parts and self-assembles at altitude
9.7.Large autonomous robot jellyfish
10.1.Hybrid tugboat
10.1.44 examples of manufacturers of EV electric water craft
10.1.1.Hybrid and pure electric tugboats
10.2.Market segments
10.2.Engine room of the hybrid tugboat
10.2.Leading manufacturers of remotely operated and autonomous underwater vehicles for sale
10.2.1.Total market
10.2.3.On the water
10.3.Market drivers
10.3.Bratt electric tugboat
10.3.Indicative prices for marine EVs in 2013
10.3.1.Pollution laws back electric boats - India, Europe, USA
10.3.2.Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) - Europe, USA
10.4.Energy Independent Vehicles EIV on water
10.4.Electric deck boat by Leisure Life
10.4.1.Loon pontoon boat Canada
10.4.2.MARS Shuttleworth motor yacht, UK
10.4.3.Milper REP-SAIL motor yacht, Turkey
10.4.4.Rensea MARINA motor yacht Europe
10.4.5.Seaswarm oil slick gathering robot, USA
10.4.6.SoelCat motor boat Netherlands
10.4.7.SolarLab tourist boats Germany
10.4.8.Sun 21 Solar Boat
10.4.9.Turanor Planet Solar Germany
10.4.10.Vaka Moana motor yacht Netherlands
10.5.Wave and sun powered sea gliders
10.5.Electric launch
10.5.1.Falmouth Scientific Inc. USA
10.5.2.Liquid Robotics USA
10.5.3.US Naval Undersea Warfare Center
10.6.Manufacturers by country and product
10.6.Solar powered boats for tourism cruising at 12 kph on Lake Geneva
10.7.Selling prices
10.9.Milper and the REP-SAIL project.
10.10.Rensea MARINA
10.13.Alster Sun Hamburg Solar Shuttle
10.14.Constance Solar Shuttle
10.15.Turanor fact sheet
10.16.Turanor construction process
10.17.Vaka Moana
10.18.Falmouth Scientific solar sea glider AUV
10.19.Wave and sun powered sea glider
10.20.Autonomous wave glider
10.21.PACX Wave Glider
10.22.Large autonomous robot jellyfish
11.1.36 examples of manufacturers of mobile robots, toy, leisure, research or hobbyist EVs by country and product
11.2.Market drivers
11.3.Listing of other manufacturers by country and product
11.3.ISIS concept
11.4.Lockheed HALE-D
11.4.Energy Independent Vehicles EIV in the air
11.4.1.Dirisolar airship France
11.4.2.ETHZ UAV Switzerland
11.4.3.ISIS airship USA
11.4.4.Lockheed Martin airship USA
11.4.5.NASA Helios USA
11.4.6.Northrop Grumman airship USA
11.4.7.Projet Sol'r Nepheleos France
11.4.8.Solar Flight USA
11.4.9.Solar Impulse Switzerland
11.4.10.Solar Ship inflatable aircraft Canada
11.4.11.Sunrise Solar airship Turkey
11.4.12.Turtle Airships Spain
11.5.Market size and trends
11.5.1.Non-military mobile robots - USA, UK, Japan
11.5.2.Research and hobbyist
11.5.3.Electric aircraft for civil use
11.5.4.Robotic lawn mowers
11.6.Solar surveillance airship ordered by the US military
11.9.Solar Impulse compared to jumbo jet
11.10.Ghost pictures of Solar Impulse 2
11.11.Round the world route
11.12.Flight to Hawaii
11.13.Solar Ship
11.14.Operating principle
11.15.Turtle airship concept
11.16.The Dyson robot vacuum cleaner

Report Statistics

Pages 254
Tables 36
Figures 127
Forecasts to 2026

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