Industrial and Commercial Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 2012-2022: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players: IDTechEx

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Industrial and Commercial Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 2012-2022: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players

Buses, trucks, taxis, other light industrial/commercial and heavy industrial vehicles: new profitable opportunities

Updated in November 2012

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Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.
 
Global sales of heavy industrial EVs by ex-factory unit price*
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy, in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.
This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future technological development roadmaps.
 
The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.
 
Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and costs.
 
Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly, most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised electric vehicle sectors such as cars.
 
Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs by numbers thousands*
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars. Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast charging of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.
 
Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared research.
Main areas the report covers
The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial & commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors, there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of latest company activity.
Who should buy this report?
Those developing or making electric vehicles of all types. Those purchasing industrial and commercial electric vehicles. Other interested parties such as service providers, technology researchers, investors and government legislators and supports of the industry.
Forecasts
Industrial and commercial electric vehicles represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market today and their market value will grow 4.2 times in the next decade. The report gives ten year forecasts by sector, explaining exactly why some sub sectors will see stellar growth and others will see very little growth.
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Further information
If you have any questions about this report, please do not hesitate to contact our report team at research@IDTechEx.com or call one of our sales managers:

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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Scope of the report
1.1.Relevant characteristics of the three categories of industrial and commercial vehicle
1.1.Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
1.1.Global market in billions of dollars ex-factory for the different categories of industrial and commercial electric vehicles
1.2.Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector
1.2.Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.2.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in 2010 by application with numbers for China
1.2.Categories and trends
1.3.Forecasts 2012-2022
1.3.Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
1.3.212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced
1.3.Ex factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4.Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.4.Market drivers
1.4.1.Synergies
1.4.2.Importance of battery price
1.5.Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.5.Numbers of manufacturers
1.5.Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.6.Full circle back to pure EVs
1.6.Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
1.7.Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.7.Key components
1.7.1.Batteries
1.7.2.Motors
1.7.3.Power trains
1.8.Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
1.8.Winning strategies
1.9.Many options just for urban buses
1.9.Electric vehicle upfront cost vs their traction battery energy storage
1.10.Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by application in 2010
1.11.Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles in China by application in 2010
1.12.Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars and other electric vehicles
1.13.Some new commercial electric vehicles shown at eCarTec 2011.e
1.14.Isuzu hybrid truck acting as road furniture in Tokyo in 2012
1.15.Pure electric bus in China, in late 2012, with supercapacitors and no battery
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.EV sectors with the largest gross sales value and profits over the years
2.1.Toyota hybrid outdoor forklift
2.1.Definitions and scope of this report
2.1.Hybrid and pure electric vehicles compared
2.1.1.Learning from the past
2.2.Hybrid electric vehicles
2.2.Electric vehicle value chain
2.3.Advantages and disadvantages of hybrid vs pure electric vehicles and the electric vehicle markets they dominate.
3.MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
3.1.Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
3.1.Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport
3.2.Bus size vs fuel consumption
3.2.Trends for all types of vehicle
3.2.Some primary hybrid market drivers
3.2.1.Peak car and light truck - different electric vehicles needed
3.2.2.Market drivers for electric industrial and commercial vehicles
3.3.Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
3.3.Hybrid market drivers
3.4.Advantages of electric commercial vehicles
3.4.Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
4.HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
4.1.What is included
4.1.Twenty examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
4.1.Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
4.2.Nissan lithium forklift
4.2.Distribution of trade volume for heavy industrial EVs
4.2.Industry challenges
4.3.Caterpillar USA
4.3.Global league table of powered industrial truck manufacturers 2010 by value of sales
4.3.Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
4.4.Experimental fuel cell hybrid indoor forklift with the fuel cell removed.
4.4.Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
4.4.Nissan and Mitsubishi electric forklifts Japan
4.5.Toyota Japan
4.5.Sales of heavy electric vehicles by region by percentage of units
4.5.Toyota Material Handling Traigo 48 in 2010, a powerful electric forklift fitted into a compact and agile package
4.6.Forklift from one of the many Chinese manufacturers
4.6.Zheijang Goodsense Forklift China
4.7.Listing of manufacturers
4.8.Market trends
4.9.Market forecasts 2012-2022
5.LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
5.1.What is included
5.1.150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
5.1.Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
5.1.Balqon Mule M100
5.2.Balcon Quiet-shift Technology
5.2.Breakdown of global market in 2010 for light industrial and commercial vehicles - global park, new vehicles, % electric, number electric, ex-factory unit price and value for the subsections Full Size Buses, Other On Road, Airport
5.2.Sub categories
5.3.Trucks
5.3.Electric pick up truck from China Vehicles Company
5.3.1.ALTe
5.3.2.Azure Dynamics
5.3.3.Balqon Pure Electric Trucks
5.3.4.Beiqi Foton Motor Co China
5.3.5.China Vehicles Company
5.3.6.Daimler Fuso
5.3.7.Freightliner, Enova, Daimler and Wal-Mart USA
5.3.8.Nano-Optonics Energy Japan
5.3.9.Odyne hybrid truck propulsion
5.3.10.Paccar with Eaton
5.3.11.Tyrano USA
5.4.EVs for local services
5.4.Exhibited Daimler commercial vehicles
5.4.1.Ford Azure Dynamics
5.4.2.Ford Quantum
5.4.3.Peugeot Citroën and Mitsubishi Motors
5.4.4.UPS & NREL
5.4.5.Renault and DHL
5.5.Airport EVs
5.5.Freightliner MT-45 step van uses 120kW Enova electric drive system
5.6.EVI truck powered by Valence lithium-ion batteries
5.6.Small people-movers
5.7.Light industrial aids
5.7.SIM Drive car concept
5.7.1.Mining - PapaBravo Canada
5.8.Listing of manufacturers
5.8.SIM Drive in wheel traction
5.9.Tyrano Big Rig
5.9.Market forecasts 2012-2022
5.10.The van
5.11.Ford Quantum system overview
5.12.Citroën Berlingo electric light commercial vehicle
5.13.Electric bus in Nepal
5.14.Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
5.15.Garbage collecting electric car
5.16.Pure electric light mining vehicles
6.BUSES
6.1.History of electric buses
6.1.79 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses or their power trains (the main added value), with country of headquarters and image
6.1.Pure electric bus in 1907
6.2.Proposal for new London double decker hybrid electric bus
6.2.36 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
6.2.Pure electric buses
6.2.1.Smith - Wanxiang
6.3.MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery
6.3.Forecast for electric buses 2012-2022
6.3.Capoco driverless electric bus concept
6.4.Insectbus concept
6.4.Market forecast for buses 2012-2022
6.5.78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by continent of headquarters.
6.6.Pure electric bus manufacturers by continent
6.7.MAN Lion urban hybrid bus
6.8.MAN Lion urban hybrid bus in section showing supercapacitors (ultracapacitors) in place of traction battery
7.TAXIS
7.1.Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
7.1.Eight projects testing pure electric taxis
7.1.Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
7.2.Mitsubishi MiEV Minicab
7.2.Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
7.2.Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan 2011
7.3.Mexico taxis late 2011
8.KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
8.1.Types of electric vehicle
8.1.Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
8.1.ThunderVolt hybrid bus
8.1.Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector
8.2.BAE Systems powertrain in a bus
8.2.Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
8.2.Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
8.2.Many fuels
8.3.Born electric
8.3.Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
8.3.Hybrid bus powertrain
8.3.Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
8.4.Hybrid car powertrain using CNG
8.4.Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends
8.4.Pure electric vehicles are improving
8.5.Series vs parallel hybrid
8.5.What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
8.5.Hybrid tugboat replacing a conventional ICE version to meet new pollution laws and provide stronger pull from stationary
8.6.Some hybrid variants
8.6.71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
8.6.Modes of operation of hybrids
8.6.1.Plug in hybrids
8.6.2.Charge-depleting mode
8.6.3.Blended mode
8.6.4.Charge-sustaining mode
8.6.5.Mixed mode
8.7.Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
8.7.Microhybrid is a misnomer
8.7.Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
8.8.Trend to deep hybridisation
8.8.Deep hybridisation
8.8.Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles
8.9.68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details.
8.9.Hybrid vehicle price premium
8.9.Evolution of hybrid structure
8.10.Price premium for hybrid buses
8.10.Battery cost and performance are key
8.10.Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting eg forklift) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
8.11.Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs, including heavy trucks but excluding buses and taxis, by numbers thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, round
8.11.Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
8.11.Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
8.12.Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored.
8.12.Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
8.12.Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
8.13.Global sales of electric taxis, ex-factory unit price and total value 2012-2022, rounded
8.13.Where supercapacitors fit in
8.13.Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
8.14.Comparison of battery technologies
8.14.Advantages and disadvantages
8.15.Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
8.15.Where supercapacitors fit in
8.16.Energy density vs power density for storage devices
8.16.Supercabatteries or bacitors
8.17.What is a range extender?
8.17.Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
8.18.Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
8.18.What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
8.19.Three generations of range extender
8.19.Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
8.19.1.First generation range extender technology
8.19.2.Second generation range extender technology
8.19.3.Third generation range extender technology
8.20.Fuel cell range extenders
8.20.Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
8.21.The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
8.21.Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
8.22.Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
8.22.Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
8.23.Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
8.23.Trend to high voltage
8.24.Component choices for energy density/ power density
8.24.Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
8.25.Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
8.25.Trend to distributed components
8.26.Trend to flatness then smart skin
8.26.Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
8.27.Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
8.27.Traction batteries
8.27.1.After the shakeout in car traction batteries
8.27.2.The needs have radically changed
8.27.3.It started with cobalt
8.27.4.Great variety of recipes
8.27.5.Other factors
8.27.6.Check with reality
8.27.7.Lithium winners today and soon
8.27.8.Reasons for winning
8.27.9.Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
8.27.10.Winning chemistry
8.27.11.Titanate establishes a place
8.27.12.Laminar structure
8.27.13.Niche winners
8.27.14.Fluid situation
8.28.Traction motors
8.28.Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
8.29.Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
8.29.Definition and background
8.30.Traction motor trends
8.30.Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
8.31.Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
8.31.Shape of motors
8.32.Location of motors
8.32.Here comes lithium
8.33.Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
8.33.Born electric - In-Wheel Electric Motors
8.34.Examples of motors in action
8.34.Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted, in millions of motors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded. Figures in red refer to high priced motors and figures in green refer to low priced mo
8.35.The Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 1898 showing its two in-wheel electric motors. Another version had four
8.35.EV Market 2011 and 2021
8.36.Total change
8.36.Mitsubishi in-wheel motor
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