Quantum Breakthroughs of 2024: Beyond the Buzz Around Google

In the last week Google's latest quantum breakthrough has been splashed across the headlines. This has created a surge of interest in quantum and the revolutionary potential of this technology. IDTechEx has been following key trends in the quantum technology market for many years, and this article picks out key takeaways you should know that go beyond the buzz.

 

 

For those new to quantum computing, the idea is that by replacing classical bits with entangled quantum bits (qubits), we should be able to solve problems that would take the machines of today eons to solve. Of course, this is hugely simplified, but is at the core of the recent messaging to come out of Google. They claim that their new Willow chip performed a computation in less than five minutes that it would take even the fastest available supercomputers 10 septillion years to achieve. Speed-ups of this scale represent such a paradigm shift that it is difficult to conceive of some of the potential applications of such advanced computing power. Big-picture ideas include designing better materials for more sustainable energy solutions or effective drug treatments.

 

However, it's worth delving into the details before getting too excited about this announcement from Google. The problem the chip solved in 2024 was a particular type of algorithm that, whilst incredibly challenging to classically solve, has little to no real-world applications. Using a so-called 'toy problem' was also the approach Google used to proclaim that they had achieved quantum supremacy with their Sycamore chip just a few years ago. The company don't shy away from this, but it's easy to miss if you focus on the headlines alone.

 

 

In terms of a breakthrough, Google's announcement is not a watershed moment for quantum computing to start competing with classical computers on a commercial scale. What is exciting for the industry is Google's progress toward error correction with the Willow chip.

 

In short, whilst qubits are really powerful, they are also vulnerable to errors. For example, part of the reason players like Google, IBM and so on are using superconducting methods of quantum computing is because operating at incredibly low temperatures creates an ultra-low noise environment as a method to minimize errors.

 

Error correction has been the focus of the entire quantum computing industry for quite some time. Benchmarks such as fidelity and coherence time are both, in part, a reflection of robustness to error. In fact, in 2024, there were a host of exciting announcements from companies big and small on these themes. This includes Quantinuum and Oxford Ionics, which are noted because their trapped ion approach (an alternative to using superconducting qubits) potentially has less infrastructure and resource demands at scale compared to Google's design. Overall, however, the takeaway is that Google isn't alone in its quest for error correction, and in making progress towards improving it in 2024.

 

 

In an era where there is so much hype around AI, semiconductors packaging and the future of computing more broadly, quantum computing was already receiving some renewed attention before Google's news. Without over-analyzing short term stock trends, the recent price rises seen by numerous public quantum computing companies such as D-Wave, IonQ, Rigetti and so on can likely be attributed at least in part to increased investor confidence that the technology is 'going somewhere'. Announcements from players as high profile as Google also serve this purpose in the short term.

 

IDTechEx suggests it's worth 'taking five' before getting too over excited about the impact of quantum computing. Firstly, only a small percent of quantum computing companies out there are public, and most were formed as SPACs which have stock market characteristics of their own to consider entirely separate from the world of quantum physics. More so, however, when you look at the roadmaps from the 20+ players developing quantum computers, including the private players, there is a common theme that real-world value from these machines is unlikely to be achieved until around 2030 (aka 5 years' time). The 2030 horizon has been picked out by IBM, IQM, Quantinuum, IonQ, and more. There is a lot more of the quantum industry to understand than what you'll find in the financial pages, and a little more patience needed just yet.

 

 

To go further still, it's not even all about quantum computing. The quantum technology market for quantum sensing and quantum communications solutions is also growing fast. There is an array of products in development, and many are commercially available now that can offer orders of magnitude increases in sensor performance or state-of-the-art data security solutions. There are opportunities to benefit from the disruptive potential of quantum without pinning hopes on quantum computing, and certainly single companies in the space alone.

 

 

It's really exciting to see quantum computing capture more attention when actors like Google announce a breakthrough. Indeed, what the Google team have achieved is seriously impressive. Yet, it's important not to equate demonstrations on mathematically interesting problems to an inflection point for commercial adoption.

 

More advancements in error correction, hardware scalability, algorithm development and infrastructure optimization are essential before quantum computing can truly reach its full potential. Yet it is reassuring to see that the wider world is waking up to the progress the entire industry is making towards this goal, and that the narrative that quantum is destined to remain a lab novelty is fading.

 

2024 will likely be seen as an important year in quantum computing, but not necessarily a breakthrough year. For now, eyes are more firmly fixed on around five years' time in 2030. For nearer term disruption it could well be worth diverting attention to other areas in the quantum technology market including quantum sensing and quantum communications. Better still, identify and address the needs across the entire quantum technology market for novel materials, component, photonics and manufacturing solutions.

 

IDTechEx's report "Quantum Computing Market 2025-2045: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts" covers the hardware that promises a revolutionary approach to solving the world's unmet challenges. The quantum computing market is pitched as enabling exponentially faster drug discovery, battery chemistry development, multi-variable logistics, vehicle autonomy, accurate asset pricing, and much more. Drawing on extensive primary and secondary research, including interviews with companies and attendance at multiple conferences, this report provides an in-depth evaluation of the competing quantum computing technologies: superconducting, silicon-spin, photonic, trapped-ion, neutral-atom, topological, diamond-defect and annealing. IDTechEx also presents an independent scores for 'quantum commercial readiness level' to assess how the quantum computing industry is progressing compared to the evolution of the classical computing industry that came before it. More information about technologies, players and key trends in the quantum technology market can be found in IDTechEx's Quantum Technology Market report. For more in-depth forecasting on specific verticals of the quantum technology market, see IDTechEx's dedicated reports on Quantum Computing, Quantum Sensing and Quantum Communications.

 

For more information on these reports, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Quantum.

 

IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.