Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles and Fleets 2021-2031

 

Consumers have range anxiety; range sells electric vehicles. According IDTechEx's electric car model database, most BEV models today offer NEDC ranges between 200- 300 miles (the average is 285 miles). A survey from Oak Ridge National Laboratory shows 95% of car journeys in the US, the country which relies the most on the car for transportation, are under 30 miles. So, in theory, current BEV ranges should be sufficient most of the time, but in practice this is not always the case.

 

The availability of charging infrastructure is one of the key factors to address range anxiety, and therefore is essential to facilitate the short and long-term uptake of plug-in electric vehicles and the sustainable development of the auto industry. By the end of 2019, we estimate that 870,000 public and 4 million private chargers were installed globally supporting 8.1 million plug-in electric vehicles in-use.

 

The report takes into account that all car sales are impacted by the covid-19 pandemic: amid economic uncertainty and unemployment, car purchases, which are typically the second largest consumer purchase (the first is a house), are now more difficult to justify for millions of consumers worldwide. Governments in Europe and China are stepping in with stimulus packages and adjusting policy to ensure sales do not collapse. There is also momentum on the demand side as consumers have experienced and become more aware of the benefits of clean air in cities while internal combustion engines have been sitting in driveways during lockdowns. At IDTechEx, we believe the electric vehicle industry will not be derailed and will continue with momentum, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty. Over the coming decade, demand for charging infrastructure will be driven by over 111 million BEV + PHEV vehicles in-use globally including passenger cars, buses, trucks, and vans.

 

 

 

The report provides analysis and forecasts for charging infrastructure deployments in key regions including China, Europe (UK, Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Rest of Europe) and the US. The penetration rate of both private and public charging infrastructure in each region and the market share of key players is presented.

 

 

We provide a technological overview of the major charging infrastructure types including conductive charging and alternative solutions such as battery swapping. Emerging charging technologies are also covered such as fast charging, inductive and capacitive charging, robotic and autonomous charging, wireless charging, off-grid charging, mobile charging, and vehicle-to-home/grid (V2H/V2G).

 

By 2031, the global electric vehicle charging infrastructure market will be worth more than $65 billion per year, creating huge opportunities for companies along the electric vehicle charging value chain. The key market players, with their technologies and developments, are presented and discussed.

 

As the industry evolves, the trend is for players to move along the value chain, from energy sourcing and supply to chargers and energy delivery. For example, currently the business case for home or workplace level 2 chargers are straightforward, given low up-front capital and operating expenses, but the business case for public fast charging stations is more difficult due to the higher up-front capital, higher operating costs, and currently low utilization. Big oil companies such as Shell and BP have been proactive in securing their shares of the market and big utility companies are integrating electric vehicle charging as part of their business.

 

 

Electric vehicle fleets such as buses and trucks require very different charging infrastructure solutions to passenger cars, from multiple mega-watt depo charging to overhead catenaries and battery swapping, covered in this report. Although electric fleet charging represents roughly 3% of the total charging infrastructure in volume, it constitutes over 20% of the total market value due to the added cost associated with the high-power requirements.

 

Looking into the future, shared autonomous mobility is expected to eventually dominate the passenger-miles in the urban environment. As nobody is available to plug-in those robo-taxis to charge, mobility service companies are going to need broadly deployed automatic charging so the autonomous vehicles can extend their range without extra labour costs. When there's downtime between rides, the cars will pull over to automatic charging spots, top up, and then continue to provide rides. In this report, we will also cover future charging trends and solutions such as robotic charging, wireless charging as well as electric road systems.

 

 

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