Tesla 3 and the 2030 dispute
Apr 01, 2016
The excitement about the first mass market product from Tesla, the Tesla 3, echoes the early days of Apple. Tesla is the Apple of the car industry now and its mantra is that cars and light commercial vehicles can and must go all electric and it is exciting to do so.
The much tougher emissions laws for 2025 and 2030 are a certainty. Norway is going all electric and Indian politicians are talking of all vehicles on Indian roads being pure electric by 2030 with zero local emissions. A motion in the Netherlands Parliament was recently passed to ensure that only all-electric cars will be sold from as early as 2025. The cabinet is now creating an action plan with its roots in an energy agreement signed in 2013 and a pledge made at the Paris UN Conference on Climate Change. So the pure electric end game will be with all of us in 2030?
Not so, according to extensive industry interviews carried out across the world this year by IDTechEx. In its new report, Future Powertrain 2016-2036 this analyst forecasts 46 types of electric vehicle by land, water and air with on-road vehicles, particularly cars and buses, taking the big money.
Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman of IDTechEx says, "A typical 10 year forecast is misleading here. For example, IDTechEx sees the reinvented traditional ICE powertrain in the form of the 48V mild hybrid appearing first in 2017 for fuel economy. In later forms it will mimic many of the features of a full hybrid that does not plug in so it will then be bought for performance as well. As 2025 and 2030 approach the 48V mild hybrid will start to gain even more sales because the traditional powertrain for medium and large cars will tend to become illegal. However, in parallel there will be continued rapid growth in sales of plug-in full hybrids particularly as premium-priced cars. After that, pure electric beats them all but when? We give our estimates."
A new and detailed roadmap is presented in the new report for 2016-2036 covering both technology and market development. Ten year forecasts are given for 46 categories of electric vehicle including 48V mild hybrids transitioning to be electric vehicles.
Harrop claims, "No one else has this level of detail. Uniquely, IDTechEx presents a bigger picture of opportunity than that addressed by other observers and participants. The Tesla 3 and its competitors are great news and foresee part of the end game but the next 20 years will also see huge numbers of 48V mild hybrids and plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles that never plug in will grab a place too. These energy independent vehicles (EIV) will use nothing but sunshine, wind and so on that the vehicle converts into electricity. Riding the bucking bronco of new powertrains will be one key to success for OEMs and component suppliers alike".
Top image source: Norio Nakayama, Wikipedia